February 3, 2008

If Romney won a caucus in the extreme northeast...

... and nobody noticed, would it mean a damned thing?

Mitt Romney never wins, because every time he does, it doesn't seem to count. What a loser!

ADDED: You know, the new Zogby poll has Romney ahead in California. That's after Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain. The McCain campaign has been good at creating the impression that McCain is inevitable. Would that tend to make Romney holdouts get in line in the name of party unity? There are a lot of Republicans that hate McCain so much they don't even want the party that he would lead. But quite aside from that, I think it's awfully strange for McCain to be perceived as the clear favorite when his polling and vote count numbers are only in the low 30s. They are much lower than the second-place candidate on the Democratic side. Speaking of the Democratic side, the inevitability theme didn't work too well for Hillary Clinton. The trend in the primaries this year is for the people in each new state to make their decision without looking back to the states that have gone before.

AND: The NYT has no story of any kind on the Maine caucus. Not even a squib.

22 comments:

rhhardin said...

One virtue that a proficient management type brings is that he sets things up to run in line with human motivation, rather than against it.

No huge intervention is necessary, just a tweak here and there.

He resembles an economist.

Not the material of soap opera.

Bob said...

At this point it seems obvious that Huckabee is on McCain's payroll as a spoiler, and will be part of McCain's administration if McCain manages to win the election. VP, possibly, or head of DHS so he can implement amnesty.

Randy (Internet Ronin) said...

Zogby has Obama doing much better in most states voting on February 5 than other pollster do. IIRC, this was also true just before the NH primary, which he got seriously wrong. There was a bit of controversy about his supposed methods then. We'll see who was closest to the actual numbers on Tuesday.

former law student said...

bob, considering how old McCain is, there's a good chance his VP will become President, thus his choice should receive additional scrutiny. I think people who take the bible literally lack the level of critical thinking needed to be President.

Trevor Jackson said...

"The trend in the primaries this year is for the people in each new state to make their decision without looking back to the states that have gone before."

Less that than seemingly voting to prove that previous state wrong. These primaries have been utterly compelling and weird.

I'm eager for Tuesday, but doubt it'll end the races on either side.

Bob said...

Former Law Student: Tell McCain, not me. I agree with you. I'm fully aware that McCain would likely be a one-term president, and it's another reason not to vote for him, unless he picks a truly stunning running mate, which Huckabee ain't.

Modern Otter said...

considering how old McCain is, there's a good chance his VP will become President, thus his choice should receive additional scrutiny...

Then again, have you seen McCain's 95-year-old mother?

Bob said...

Modern Otter: Then again, have you seen McCain's 95-year-old mother?

Yah, McCain trots that horse out of the stables when he's asked the age question. I believe, though, that both his father and grandfather died before their time, which he's careful not to mention.

The Drill SGT said...

When looking at CA, I recommend the local experts, the FIELDS Poll. They have McCain +8

Zogby is a Democrat (has run as a Democrat), who predicted Kerry +7 in 2004. He's an Arab who opposes the Iraq war. I think his bias may torque his sampling.

ricpic said...

The thing that's so frightening about McCain is precisely the horrendous ordeal he endured. We're all told that that's what we're supposed to celebrate in his life story, and all credit to him for having survived extended torture, but the fact is that with the exception of a tiny fraction who emerge saints after being squeezed in a vise the overwhelming majority are skewed, skewed for life. The guy was probably angry to begin with. Now he's a barely controlled cauldron of boiling rage. Do we really want such a person next to the button?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

"You know, the new Zogby poll has Romney ahead in California. That's after Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain"

That's because Arnold isnot considered a Republican by Republicans and his endorsement of McCain is a net negative in the Primary. Schwarzenegger is a RINO just like McCain and his endorsement of McCain carrys no weight whatsoever.

Who is perceiving McCain as the clear leader???? I'll tell you who. The media. They are salivating to have him run against THEIR candidate. They may be treating McCain all nicey nicey right now, but just wait until the actual election. They will turn on him like the pack of rabid chihuahuas that they are.

John Althouse Cohen said...

I think people who take the bible literally lack the level of critical thinking needed to be President.

FYI, Huckabee doesn't take the whole Bible literally. Here's what he said at a debate:

I believe the Bible is exactly what it is. It's the word of revelation to us from God himself.

(APPLAUSE)

And the fact is that when people ask do we believe all of it, you either believe it or you don't believe it. But in the greater sense, I think what the question tried to make us feel like was that, well, if you believe the part that says "Go and pluck out your eye," well, none of us believe that we ought to go pluck out our eye. That obviously is allegorical.

P. Rich said...

McCain is the most Democrat-like of the Republican candidates, darling of the MSM, friend to Teddy et al. He won't beat a Democrat in the national race because the "moderates" and "independents" and Hispanics supporting him in the primaries will vote Dem - while true conservative Republicans stay home and get drunk.

Simon said...

rhhardin said...
"One virtue that a proficient management type brings is that he sets things up to run in line with human motivation, rather than against it."

Wonderful observation.

SteveR said...

Romney was excited about the new CA poll numbers until he learned it was Zogby.

former law student said...

Then again, have you seen McCain's 95-year-old mother?

Her existence argues more for McCain's continued competence than his continued existence.

j a c: Although Huckabee backpedaled quite a bit in that and later questioning, implying it was up to God how to arrange His creation, he did reveal his creationist position by later saying, "If anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it."

John Althouse Cohen said...

Although Huckabee backpedaled quite a bit in that and later questioning, implying it was up to God how to arrange His creation, he did reveal his creationist position by later saying, "If anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it."

Oh, it's true he doesn't believe in evolution. But just because he doesn't believe in evolution doesn't mean he takes the Bible literally. It could just be that he thinks it's an improbable theory. In fact, he specifically said he's not sure if the "six days" of the creation were literally six days.

And again, I just said he doesn't take the entire Bible literally. He might take some parts literally but not other parts. I wouldn't call that "backpedalling."

Of course, none of this is to say that I agree with any of his particular views. For instance, he's clearly wrong about evolution. I just don't know if I agree with you about why he's wrong. He shouldn't be criticized for believing in the Bible; he should be criticized for not believing in science.

Simon said...

John Althouse Cohen said...
"Huckabee doesn't take the whole Bible literally. Here's what he said at a debate: 'I believe the Bible is exactly what it is. It's the word of revelation to us from God himself ... [but] none of us believe that we ought to go pluck out our eye. That obviously is allegorical."

It's easy to say that some parts should be taken as literal and some parts should be read as allegory. The difficulty is finding a valid and neutral criterion for working out which is which, and how you then construe ambiguity in the text.

Donald Douglas said...

Zogby nailed the tracking polls for the Florida GOP primary.

But LAT and the Field Poll showed McCain way out front in CA just a few days back. I can't see Romney overcoming a double-digit gap that fast.

Oversampled Romney-ites in this one, most likely.

It's going to be a blowout on Tuesday. The McCain comeback is THE story of this election...

Astonishing.

Cedarford said...

Otter - considering how old McCain is, there's a good chance his VP will become President, thus his choice should receive additional scrutiny...

Then again, have you seen McCain's 95-year-old mother?


Many, including her famous anti-Mormon bigotry moment...But no one has seen McCains Dad because he died long ago at age 72. McCain has also had 3 bouts of a cancer that is 99.99% lethal in 3 years if it gets past the lymph nodes, and some early signs of age-related confusion and outbursts..His sister is also a cancer post-op.

I agree with former law student. Plenty of other religions have nutty beliefs, but except in the Fundie variant of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam - attempt to balance their religious beliefs with secular realities, accept some compromises, note that times change from when religious texts were written and need to be reconciled with a modern world.

Fundies cannot, so they must suspend critical reasoning and thinking skills in many areas, then have a hell of a time functioning in a modern world that is in part premised on ideas and science and mathematical tools they reject.

Pastor Huckleberry is another disaster that will not attact more votes to a McCain nomination than he scares away. He also ran with religion on his sleeve, dissed the great Western bastion Republicans have of small government "leave us out of all the regulations" ranchers, Mormons, farmers, and self-made Westerners..

And, there is the issue of Huckabee being kept afloat after New Hampshire by McCain to divide conservative votes and to take 1st Thompson out in SC and then Romney in Florida by only campaigning where Thompson and Romney were strongest and not "poach away" McCain votes...in return for a McCain VP or cabinet spot. Which requires Huckabee to run until after Tuesday and take away Southern states and Missouri from Romney and either get afew more for himself or deliver for his "good friend" McCain.

That will be remembered by people already put off voting for McCain, if he also comes with the Christian Socialist candidate that worked to negate the conservative vote and split evangelicals away.

former law student said...

j a c: You may be right, and certainly you are speaking precisely while I am not. In my experience, people who have a problem with the science of evolution are selective in their objections to science. I've never met a Baptist, or Bible-believing fundamentalist, who objected to the theories of relativity, or to quantum mechanics, for example. They do object to science regarding the origins of life and the origins of the universe.

I'll put it this way: Huckabee doesn't believe that he himself as a human being descended from other primates, a key theory of evolution backed up by considerable evidence (Olduvai gorge, etc.). This position is far more likely to be held by fundamentalists than by skeptics operating at a high level of critical thinking. Huckabee's education, training, and previous experience are consistent with being a fundamentalist. Therefore, one may reasonably infer that fundamentalism is driving Huckabee's skepticism.

The Drill SGT said...

ADDED: You know, the new Zogby poll has Romney ahead in California

McCain by 9 in California.

so much for Zogby's sampling