Althouse: Anxieties over the the high-speed "train to nowhere" in California.

January 2, 2011

Anxieties over the the high-speed "train to nowhere" in California.

Reported in the NYT.

240 comments:

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Automatic_Wing said...: 59 mph. That's how fast garage's high-speed choo-choo goes. Slower than a Greyhound bus. And only $810M up front and few tens of millions each year thereafter. What a glorious future awaits, comrades!; 1/3/11, 3:36 PM
Methadras said...: We need to pass the legislation to know what is in it. I've heard that somewhere before. Things that make you go, hmmm.; 1/3/11, 3:36 PM
Robert R. said...: "You mean the sort of persistent DEFICIT that would have over 20 years cost a lot of money? Those sorts of operating costs?"

Yeah those sorts of operating costs. Which apply to all parts of the transportation budget. Or the budget in general. I can think of a lot more wasteful and destructive forms of spending than improving the total infrastructure for moving goods and people. The freight upgrades in particular were very real benefits to be realized.

I get why people don't want to spend money given the size of the debt and deficits. And I'm fully on board that selling a transportation project as anything other than moving people and goods more effiently is flat out stupid. (See Doyle, Busalacchi, and Barrett.)

I also know that there were COST/BENEFIT analyses completed for the project and they were favorable for the project. Which you can view at the WDOT website.

But, this was never about engineering, cost/benefit analyses, or anything other than politics, talking points, and a cynical attempt to grab funds to fix the State's budget deficit with Federal money. And the last portion backfired leaving Wisconsin over $50 million in the hole for obligations. And still funding the operating costs of the Hiawatha, which hopefully will become profitable.

Given that $50 million hole and rail money going elsewhere, some of which would have come back to State coffers in the form of Income and Sales taxes, the argument that Walker saved Wisconsin money is shaky. Walker himself has kept quiet about it. We'll see the fallout in his February budget, which Walker has been very quiet about. Probably because he knows it's going to get ugly.; 1/3/11, 3:38 PM
Beldar said...: @Former Law Student: The 2010 reapportionment was the very first time since California became a state that it didn't gain any congressional seats.

Were illegal aliens excluded from the Census, California -- like other bankrupt or near-bankrupt states -- would have lost seats.

You've carefully ignored my comment that California's tax base is shrinking. California can't pay for its current obligations. Merchants refuse to accept state-issued gasoline purchase cards because the state habitually stiffs its vendors. Public employees are getting IOUs instead of paychecks.

Cost today to rent a 17' U-Haul truck in San Francisco for drop-off in Houston: $1281. Same truck picked up in Houston for drop-off in San Francisco: $805. Thus does the market continuously identify and quantify the supply of and demand for moving trucks. So many fewer people wish to move to San Francisco than to Houston that U-Haul has to pay, in effect, a $476 premium just to get enough trucks returned to SF to supply the demand of people wanting to leave SF.

So if we're going to build a high-speed train, why not situate it in the state that produced more jobs in the last decade than the rest of the country put together (TX), instead of in the state that's lost the most jobs (CA)? Why put it in a state that's already been bankrupted by mismanagement, and that remains in denial and unrepentant?

One could make a vastly better case for a high-speed rail line between Houston & Dallas -- and such proposals have indeed been made, sometimes even by well-meaning but misguided Republicans. But no such proposal has gotten off the ground because we DON'T WANT ONE IN TEXAS. And we don't need one anywhere in the U.S.

The rest of us are already dreading the day that California comes hat in hand to Washington, asking for our tax dollars to fend off or mitigate the effects of California's collapse. Only a nation gripped by absolute insanity would double down on what's already a losing bet.

My word verification for this comment is the most pertinent I've seen in a long time, since it describes you perfectly, Former Law Student: "phantrac." Consider me NOT a phan, or even a fan, of magic trains.; 1/3/11, 3:41 PM
garage mahal said...: I also know that there were COST/BENEFIT analyses completed for the project and they were favorable for the project. Which you can view at the WDOT website.

You won't find any of the locals here going to a factual website, with figures and stuff. Why do that when you can just pull stats out of your ass like Maguro does? Easy! Choo-choo!; 1/3/11, 3:47 PM
Hagar said...: I have been sceptical of cost/benefit analyses ever since 1961, when word came down from the Pentagon to the CoE District in Albuquerque that they would justify construction of Trinidad Dam in Colorado or heads would roll.
So all the section heads put letters in their personnel files that they were proceeding as ordered against their personal and professional judgment, and the dam was justified all right.

And the dam was built. However, Robert, it did not come in under that budget, nor any budget adopted later.; 1/3/11, 3:51 PM
Robert R. said...: It's not 1961 anymore. And the cost/benefit calculations were completed under several administrations.

And, more to the point, it would all be pertinent if the completely public and transparent cost/benefit analyses were being debated. But, instead of doing that, opponents relied on cries of "boondoggle" and "choo choo". That's not debunking, that's heckling.; 1/3/11, 3:55 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: Let's spend billions so that we can get to Milwaukee at the same speed you can get with a $24 Greyhound ticket today.

Brilliant!; 1/3/11, 3:55 PM
Phil 314 said...: The path to profitability is paved with good intentions; 1/3/11, 3:58 PM
Robert R. said...: Let's replace subsidized short haul airline flights with another, cheaper form of transportation. And improve freight while doing so. And get people to Chicago faster.

But addressing the actual arguments is harder than constructing a straw man.

The political theater when toll lanes in Wisconsin come up is going to be something. And all of the fee increases too.; 1/3/11, 4:01 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: Why not just run a bus service from Madison to the Milwaukee train station? Gets you there at the same time and doesn't cost a trillion bucks.; 1/3/11, 4:06 PM
Methadras said...: Why is Austin, TX looking like a better place to be than San Diego?; 1/3/11, 4:15 PM
Methadras said...: garage mahal said...

You won't find any of the locals here going to a factual website, with figures and stuff. Why do that when you can just pull stats out of your ass like Maguro does? Easy! Choo-choo!

And yet here you are not providing any in retort. Irony much, fat boy or did you eat that too?; 1/3/11, 4:17 PM
Michael said...: Garage: Can we unpack your math for a second or two?

"National high-speed network is estimated to cost $8 billion. [Or the cost of one month in Iraq/Afghanistan]."

OK. I am with you so far. The whole United States of America gets a HSR network for USD 8 billion.

"$810 million granted to Wisconsin for rail is 5.7 times $140 million"

Ok. Wisconsin was going to get $810 million.

So, if I read you right then Wisconsin (a state in between and on the way to nowhere) is going to get 10.125% of the total cost of the entire "network?" And the California train to nowhere is costing how much?

I know you are pulling our legs with this train math because it does not make any sense. None.; 1/3/11, 4:19 PM
Robert R. said...: They do. Business professionals don't ride it.

OTOH, business professionals do ride the Hiawatha all the time. There are busses that go to Chicago too, after all. It's a different demographic.

But, that's why they performed ridership estimates and cost/benefit analyses. And put them up in public. But, apparently, they naively thought that someone would actually debate the actual numbers. I'd like to see someone do so. If the project was so bad, someone with expertise should be able to point out all the wrong numbers, and what the right numbers should be. That would be an actual debate about the engineers' assumptions and methods. Not screaming "boondoggle", "socialism", and "choo choo", which have no meaning in math or engineering.; 1/3/11, 4:19 PM
Michael said...: Garage: The California HSR is meant to cost USD 40 billion. Less the .8 billion for Wisconsin that leaves 39.2 billion for the entire rest of the glorious HSR national system. Do a quick calculation on the cost per mile in Wisconsin and then extrapolate to see the folly of these numbers.; 1/3/11, 4:24 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: They do. Business professionals don't ride it.

So what makes you think that "Business professionals" will ride a train if they won't ride a bus?; 1/3/11, 4:24 PM
Hagar said...: I think it was sometime in the 1980's that a speaker at an engineering seminar noted that when Congress passed the Interstate Highway legislation in 1956(?), the total cost of the system was estimated at 44 billion dollars, and that it was then (198X) still estimated to cost 44 billion dollars to complete it.
What is the current estimate for completing the Interstate System? Rather more than $44 billion, I expect.; 1/3/11, 4:32 PM
former law student said...: Were illegal aliens excluded from the Census, California -- like other bankrupt or near-bankrupt states -- would have lost seats.

Yes, illegal aliens are so eager to divulge their family details to employees of the United States government. Pull my other leg, please -- it feels neglected.

Actually, California's Department of Finance figures, based on birth and death statistics, school-enrollment data, driver's license address changes, tax returns and Medicare enrollment, that the Census missed 1.5 million people -- enough for a new Congressional seat.

You've carefully ignored my comment that California's tax base is shrinking.

Collections are down, but I suspect that's true of Texas as well. The state's GDP was just short of $1.9 trillion for 2009, placing it between Italy and Brazil as the eighth largest economy in the world.; 1/3/11, 4:34 PM
garage mahal said...: @Michael
I'm not sure what numbers you think I'm pulling your leg on. Yes Wisconsin was awarded a huge chunk of the total HSR fund. 8 billion is a lot money. But like I said, the entire HSR network for approx what we spend in Afghsnistan/Iraq in one month? Seems like a better investment than building water parks in Iraq.; 1/3/11, 4:43 PM
Robert R. said...: "So what makes you think that "Business professionals" will ride a train if they won't ride a bus?"

Because business professionals do ride the Hiawatha already. You act like Wisconsin doesn't have an example of a train with growing ridership and proven demographics. We do. And we can look at it for an example. Heck, it's ridden by the people that voted for Walker, which is irony. And perhaps why Walker supports the Hiawatha.

Which is growing steadily. Which is why it absolutely makes sense to add more cars. And why they've been looking to expand the route since the Thompson administration.

What I find funny is that people somehow aren't angry as hell at LaHood/Obama for how they screwed Wisconsin in the way they pulled the funding. Again, the Wisconsin taxpayer is paying for California HSR construction and over $50 million in rail improvements in Wisconsin. ADA improvements for the Milwaukee Station, freight rail improvements, expansion of the Mitchell platform, a maintenance facility for new Hiawatha trains, etc. But, perhaps that would mean admitting that perhaps Walker didn't save the Wisconsin taxpayer anything. In many ways, the USDOT created more rail spending in the process. Walker can't really back out of supporting the Hiawatha, and projects that really should be Federally funded like the ADA upgrades, and California was eager to grab the money.; 1/3/11, 5:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Chef Mojo: FLS, are you really that fucking obtuse?

fls: If people are suddenly going to cite a series of articles published in 1931 as if it meant something about someone or something they should be able to defend their position. If I used the example of, say Ivar Kreuger, the Swedish Match King, to point out the evils of capitalism I would expect a WTF? response as well.

A simple "yes" would have sufficed.; 1/3/11, 5:21 PM
Michael said...: Garage: Please read my post again. Your numbers do not add up. It is impossible to build a national HSR system for the 8 billion dollars you note in your post. It is not possible to build it for 80 billion either if that was the number you meant to use. The 40 billion estimate for the California piece came from the NYT article we were supposed to have read.; 1/3/11, 6:24 PM
former law student said...: Anglelyne:

In 50 words or less complete the following sentence: We should give a shit about Walter Duranty because...

Have you accepted your share of responsibility for Billie Sol Estes' iniquity yet? And do you still justify and excuse Ivar Kreuger's misdeeds?; 1/3/11, 6:32 PM
Michael said...: FLS: Let me try!!! ....because any educated person will know both who he is and what his mendacity did to hide the facts of a genocide in progress.; 1/3/11, 6:36 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: Because business professionals do ride the Hiawatha already.

Let's keep things in perspective. The Hiawatha moved an average of 2,145 people a day this year, which is a tiny number. Hardly even worth worrying about. Average daily vehicle traffic on I-94 between Chicago and Milwaukee is probably well over 150,000 vehicles per day.

If you can get 2,145 people a day to ride between Chicago and Milwaukee, how much ridership can you expect between Milwaukee and Madison? Half that? Less? Madison is a lot smaller than Chicago.

A billion dollars to move 700-800 people a day between Madison and Milwaukee cannot be considered a wise use of resources. Particularly when you could do the same thing with buses at a fraction of the cost.; 1/3/11, 6:47 PM
former law student said...: any educated person will know both who he is and what his mendacity did to hide the facts of a genocide in progress.

Ah, you mean like the world-famous Charles Lindbergh, who publicly and notoriously showed his respect and admiration for the Nazis even after Kristallnacht revealed their agenda to destroy the Jews. His article in the Reader's Digest in November '39 -- just a bit more popular across the nation than the NY Times -- urging white countries not to war with each other, but to stand together against Asians.

I call upon all conservatives to denounce Charles A. Lindbergh, and to work to strip his name from the San Diego airport.; 1/3/11, 7:01 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: Nice redirection attempt. Don't think Lucky Lindy won a Pulitzer, though...; 1/3/11, 7:14 PM
Michael said...: FLS: Look, dipshit, you didn't know who Duranty was and you had no idea what he did. You are understandably embarrassed. You should be because you are a fucking know it all who often does not know a goddamn thing. You are a passive aggressive fool, an idiot on stilts and you should shut up when you are caught out. You were the one who stepped in the bucket on Duranty, shake it off your own quivering leg.

You don't redeem yourself by being a bigger jackass and trying to change the subject. Go to library and read something by Robert Conquest.; 1/3/11, 7:22 PM
garage mahal said...: If you can get 2,145 people a day to ride between Chicago and Milwaukee, how much ridership can you expect between Milwaukee and Madison? Half that? Less? Madison is a lot smaller than Chicago

You've asked this before, and were answered. Did you forget? Forget how to google? Or more likely, you didn't like what google or anyone else answered, and you don't even care what the answers are anymore. That's your oath as a blood-brother conservative yo!; 1/3/11, 7:32 PM
Robert R. said...: Potentially 2,000, probably closer to 3,000 during weekdays, cars off the road between Milwaukee and Chicago during rush hour is nothing to sneeze at. If you've ever driven to Chicago, you'd know that. The average car length is about 13.5 feet. That's 5.1 to 7.7 miles of cars a day to put it in perspective. Every day. When you drive through a construction zone, it makes a difference.

And the idea was to move people between Madison and Mitchell Airport and Chicago. Milwaukee happens to be in the middle, but the ridership estimates were always based on Chicago being a key source/destination. Which, is a rail hub where it looks like Amtrak does well in addition to the northeast and Washington.

But, again, I probably could have lived with the decision if it actually had saved Wisconsin's taxpayers money. But, the way the USDOT pulled the funds put a damper on that, leaving Wisconsin holding the bag for tens of millions while still paying for HSR elsewhere.

Even worse, we're paying for a California rail plan that makes not a lick of sense as anything other than a stake put in the ground to extort future payments as not to "waste the money". At least Chicago, Mitchell Airport, Milwaukee, and Madison are actual destinations that people travel between all the time. And at least the Chicago hub connects to quite a few other destinations, St. Louis for example. At least the Acela turns a profit which would have been a decent investment. The California "plan" has no hope of any significant ridership without a much larger investment. And that just stinks of politics.

The reason that Wisconsin won that large a grant in the first place was because there was over a decade worth of engineering into the plan and it had been looked at by multiple administrations. California looks like they strapped together an endgame, Los Angeles to SF, to an arbitrary set of railway without much of any thought of what a good incremental investment would be.; 1/3/11, 7:37 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: It's a billion dollars for glorified Greyhound bus service, garage.; 1/3/11, 8:19 PM
Hagar said...: I think that improving the passenger railway service we have for both speed, convenience, and comfort can be done at a fairly reasonable cost and would do a lot more good than high speed rail in this country.

Also note that HSR is pretty much useless for freight transport.; 1/3/11, 8:26 PM
Calypso Facto said...: Tell me you were joking about getting the whole nationwide hsr system for $8 billion, garage?!? $8 billion is just a random amount authorized under this federal budget to throw at politically favored constituents and no indication of the cost of the entire system. Based on the estimates coming from the California experience, the price tag for the whole system has been pegged at $1 trillion or more.; 1/3/11, 8:35 PM
Robert R. said...: Please note the the Wisconsin HSR plan was going to upgrade freight tracks owned the by State of Wisconsin for shared use. Along with improved signalling and controls to minimize delays. Which was all documented in the Engineering plan for the project which nobody bothered to read.

And, there's no doubt that Walker wanted those freight upgrades. Either that or the President of Wisconsin & Southern Railroad really needs to reconsider his interest in politics.

I expect the next chapter will be when I-90 comes up for Federal funds. I expect games to be played with that as it runs through Paul Ryan's district and would put him and Walker on the spot if funding isn't approved initially. If Paul Ryan resorted to an earmark, it would be political suicide on a national level. But if he lets it go, his constituents likely won't be happy with him at all. And I could definitely see a faux crisis where Kohl is set up to ride to the rescue.; 1/3/11, 8:39 PM
MadisonMan said...: I expect the next chapter will be when I-90 comes up for Federal funds.

Do you mean the widening of it to 3 lanes?

I was amused to see the estimate of that work to come in just under $810M. It's almost like $810M was some magical number not to be exceeded.

I think that highway work is in a budget somewhere already, but am not sure.; 1/3/11, 8:56 PM
Robert R. said...: The I-90/I-39 project just got the approval of the Transportation Projects Commission in October. It still has to go through the budget process at the State level this year and the design process. And the State will absolutely request Federal funding, probably so that the road builders can shift over from the I-90 widening.

I expect that the potential for mischief in the Federal funding process is high.; 1/3/11, 9:51 PM
Robert R. said...: Excuse me, that should be "shift over from the I-94 widening". That $2 billion project that went through without any organized opposition.; 1/3/11, 9:52 PM
former law student said...: you didn't know who Duranty was and you had no idea what he did.

And so naturally I assume it doesn't amount to a flea's fart today. Does it? Are people still duped about Stalin? Virtually everyone to whom the NYT's coverage of the Soviet Union mattered at the time is taking a dirt nap.

So why should we care today?; 1/3/11, 11:05 PM
Michael said...: FLS: Because people like you believe every word in the NYT. Because people like you are taking a premature dirt nap relative to the evils of totalitarian regimes. That, my slow witted friend, is why.; 1/4/11, 5:55 AM