April 30, 2011

Mid-recount, Prosser's lead has gone from 7,316 to 13,735.

525 of 3,602 precincts have finished their work. Maybe the slower-counting precincts will trend toward Kloppenburg, but it looks pretty hopeless.

ADDED: Actually, if Prosser picked up 6,419 in the first 525 precincts, there are perhaps 26,000 votes that could be netted by one candidate or the other in the remaining precincts. If there are more Kloppenburg-leaning counties that haven't finished yet, why couldn't she win? Prosser supporters should not get complacent. Pay attention! [ADDED: Most likely, the increased margin after counting only about 1/7 of the votes is purely a result of Prosser-leaning precincts having finished counting at this point. The precincts that are reporting on the recount may be coming up with exactly the same totals they had the first time.]

IN THE COMMENTS: Larry J says:
Of course the precincts that trend towards Kloppenburg will be slow to report. They want to see how many votes they have to manufacture. It's a very old tactic that has been proven quite effective (e.g. Kennedy, Franken).
And traditionalguy said:
Or the recount is revealing the vote packing fraud practiced by the Kloppenburgers that aimed to win by just enough against a known count for Prosser. But the "mistake" of leaving out a city's report from the totals skewed the target that the Kloppenberger vote packers had to aim for. Damn those cheating Republicans.
That made me realize that I was assuming Prosser's net gain was the result of finding previously uncounted votes. But it could just as well be the result of Kloppenburg losing votes. The linked article is minimal, but it does say the recounters haven't found any "major anomalies."

MORE: Commenter Dual Freq gives us the cite to get to the running totals, so we can see how the new counts in each precinct. When you do that, you can see that nothing dramatic has happened. Even though the margin at this point is 6,419 more than the original margin for the whole state, the comparison of the previous totals in the recounted precincts reveals that Prosser has only netted 33 votes so far in the recount. That is, the original count was pretty accurate.

MORE IN THE COMMENTS: Dual Freq says:
Looking closer at the totals from the GAB's spreadsheet, the differences are mostly 0, 1, 2 or 3 votes in each ward. Except two wards. Prosser lost 4 and Kloppenburg gained for for a net loss of 8 votes in Bailey's Harbor Ward 1&2 in Door county. Prosser also netted 15 in Eau Pleine Ward 1 in Portage County when Prosser gained 7 and Kloppenburg lost 8 from the original totals. That's a huge error there because there were only 339 votes in that ward.
T J Sawyer saYS:
The title of the post reads like a report from the MSM. It's a good thing we have DualFreq on the job!
Yes! Many thanks to Dual Freq!

71 comments:

Hunter said...

A swing of that magnitude at this stage, no matter the direction, hardly inspires confidence in the electoral process.

Frankly, that should be a major concern to EVERYONE.

Milwaukee said...

Should the final tally prove the margin of victory is greater than 0.5%, will Kloppenburg be expected to pay for the recall? Or will the taxpayers be stuck with the bill for that vain and narcissistic exercise in denigrating democracy?

vet66 said...

A swing of this magnitude makes one wonder who stands to gain the most by failing to properly add Prosser votes to the final tally.

Ooopsie! Someone else forgot to hit the save key. I wonder who...?

Larry J said...

Maybe the slower-counting precincts will trend toward Kloppenburg, but it looks pretty hopeless.

Of course the precincts that trend towards Kloppenburg will be slow to report. They want to see how many votes they have to manufacture. It's a very old tactic that has been proven quite effective (e.g. Kennedy, Franken).

traditionalguy said...

Or the recount is revealing the vote packing fraud practiced by the Kloppenburgers that aimed to win by just enough against a known count for Prosser. But the "mistake" of leaving out a city's report from the totals skewed the target that the Kloppenberger vote packers had to aim for. Damn those cheating Republicans.

Freeman Hunt said...

5419 is a big change. Where were those votes the first time?

Big Mike said...

And his advisers were telling Prosser to concede when the margin was Kloppenburg by 200?!?!?

I hope that Reince Priebus took the competent election advisers with him when he took over the RNC.

Holmes said...

Hopeful...hopeful.

Freeman Hunt said...

Is this mostly from Prosser picking up votes or Kloppenburg losing votes? The article doesn't say.

Dual Freq said...

That number does not reflect the change in the final totals, just the currently recounted wards.
They hav a nice Excel spread sheet at the GAB web site:
http://gab.wi.gov/node/1735
I'll summarize it for you:
Recount count Totals:
Prosser:95398
Kloppenburg:81663
Original count totals:
Prosser:95327
Kloppenburg:81625
Prosser gained 71 votes, Kloppenburg gains 38 votes for a net gain of 33 votes for Prosser. So Prosser's new lean would be 7,349.

That's the number we need to look at is the net gain or loss from the previous count.

Big Mike said...

Pay attention!

Yes'm

AllenS said...

garage will be along any minute now to explain what happened, YOU KNUCKLEDRAGGERS!

Patrick said...

Dual Freq has it. Thanks for doing the
Math.

PaulV said...

Maybe I misread story, but isn't the difference only based on precints recounted. There may be little or no change from original count. Sometimes reporters suck, sometime big time.

WV: ingest
Why should we ingest -------------?

Fred4Pres said...

She could win, but it is not probabable she will. Still if it is close they can cheat. Pay attention indeed.

PaulV said...

minutes late, dollar short. Suckage for the newspaper

AllenS said...

So, how much is this recount going to cost the taxpayers? $500,000? More?

Michael said...

We greedily await the explanation from Garage, the creeping conspiracy the race angle and the smugness of defeat.

Dual Freq said...

Looking closer at the totals from the GAB's spreadsheet, the differences are mostly 0, 1, 2 or 3 votes in each ward. Except two wards. Prosser lost 4 and Kloppenburg gained for for a net loss of 8 votes in Bailey's Harbor Ward 1&2 in Door county. Prosser also netted 15 in Eau Pleine Ward 1 in Portage County when Prosser gained 7 and Kloppenburg lost 8 from the original totals. That's a huge error there bbecause there were only 339 votes in that ward.

kcom said...

"Mid-recount, Prosser's lead has gone from 7,316 to 13,735."

No, mid-recount, Prosser's lead has been established as 13,735 votes. It's gone from 0 to that number. Since it's a total recount and we're starting from zero votes for each contender, neither had a lead to start with. As more reports come in, Prosser's lead will diminish (perhaps after first rising even more) until it settles somewhere very close to the final result announced after the election (barring the discovery of some massive irregularity).

Dual Freq is totally right. The intermediate totals mean nothing. It's the change within precincts that's important. The ones that have reported so far just happen to be more pro-Prosser than the average.

Patrick said...

I'm surprised Prof. Althouse hasn't picked up on Dual Freq's point. The title of the post is wrong. The 13735 "lead" has no more meaning than the numbers that were filtering in on election night. The only important changes are the ones DF noted, i.e. the net change in the ward counts, which show very minor gains for Prosser.

T J Sawyer said...

The title of the post reads like a report from the MSM. It's a good thing we have DualFreq on the job!

Interesting that both candidates are gaining votes. Note that they are gaining around .05% to .07% Not enough to make a difference.

Pogo said...

Althouse has some very astute readers.

Harry Phartz said...

I have money on the assertion that 11 (or fewer) votes will change when all is netted out. I may be forking over cash at this rate.

Toshiro said...

So they weren't reporting the net change? What a stupid news article.

Kirk Parker said...

Toshiro,

I'd be a little cautious about being so critical when clearly not a professional writer yourself.

But we're here to help! Class, can you spot the redundant word here:

   "stupid news article"

bagoh20 said...

1) Counting is one of the first skills mankind developed. 100,000 yrs of practice.

2) Election counting is probably our most important use of it.

3) We suck at it.

How the hell are we gonna control the climate? Hope.

kcom said...

"So they weren't reporting the net change? What a stupid news article."

They were reporting straight totals. It was a factual article about what was submitted from the precincts.

Prosser's current total: 95,398

Kloppenburg's current total: 81,663


They said nothing about the difference, the net change, etc. They just reported the official numbers from the recount. It was others who started talking about "leads" changing.

Patrick said...

The upside of this election is that there will be that no fairminded person will have any basis on which to claim that the election was stolen. As for the rest, nothing would convince them anyway.

edutcher said...

Dubya won all his recounts, too.

If he's heard about this, he must be smiling.

Ann Althouse said...

"I'm surprised Prof. Althouse hasn't picked up on Dual Freq's point. The title of the post is wrong. The 13735 "lead" has no more meaning than the numbers that were filtering in on election night. The only important changes are the ones DF noted, i.e. the net change in the ward counts, which show very minor gains for Prosser."

The original post does see this issue, but the title is (intentionally) inflammatory.

pbAndj said...

"The original post does see this issue, but the title is (intentionally) inflammatory."

So, this post w/ all of it's updates (and crazy 26,000 estimate) was all intentional.

Right.

garage mahal said...

Anyone ever see Althouse and Kathy Nickolaus at the same time?

AllenS said...

garage,

Please change the picture. You are an embarrassment to the Packers.

bagoh20 said...

If you count the contents of your piggy bank twice, you always get two different numbers. Generally the second count is given more credibility for no reason.

When my sister would accuse me stealing from her piggy, I would attribute it to counting error. Nobody wants to count it all over again and they are never really sure they didn't make a mistake.

Carol_Herman said...

The buthcer's thumb will go on the scale! When you shop supermarkets, and you no longer go to the local butcher ... It was because he more often than not, sheated housewives.

As soon as the ability came along to shop without the butcher, people aimed for the pre-wrapped meat counters right away.

There's usually cheating.

What makes it sad in elections, is all those people who participate are so low rung! Maybe, some of them are just so stupid that can't even add up simple numbers?

On the other hand, with Prosser's bound, EITHER the Kloppenburg crew were DELUSIONAL. All they think they than wrap this up at the end.

While the margin of being UNDER .5% just flew out the window. At some point this recount wasn't free.

Carol_Herman said...

All right. Let's say a "ROBBERY" is in progress. One of the ways the democraps operate is to put out a "high" number for the opponent. And, then when the see-saw swings the other way, they are out to rob you of a voice!

How can you claim "FRAUD" ... if you're not screaming fraud, now? I can hear the stampede forming.

WV: 'diming' ... like in nickel and diming.

bagoh20 said...

"It was because he more often than not, sheated housewives."

Spelling or Freudian?

Patrick said...

"The original post does see this issue, but the title is (intentionally) inflammatory."

Ah, yes. The "art" of this blog. How could I miss that? Part of what I've come to really enjoy about this blog over the last few years.

garage mahal said...

Please change the picture. You are an embarrassment to the Packers.

Sorry, can't do that. Packer players are union -- Charles Woodson and others players have given their support to WI public workers. You don't, so maybe you are the embarrassment to the Packers.

Which reminds, I'm off to the Thunda Around the Rotunda and Crazylegs. What a frickin cool city.

T J Sawyer said...

Looking at the spreadsheet, I see that the biggest swing was in the Town of Eau Pleine where the numbers changed from
165 Prosser, 164 Kloppenburg to
172 Prosser, 156 Kloppenburg.

Wow, from "squeaker" to "decisive."

I think the professor and Meade should head out on one of their weekend jaunts and give us a sidebar profile of Eau Pleine.

MarkG said...

What Kloppy should be worried about is the returns policy on the judical robe she bought at JCPenneys.

Jason (the commenter) said...

I'm sure Kloppenburg is already working on her "Conservative bloggers noticed massive irregularities in the recount" speech.

Trooper York said...

AllenS said...
garage,

Please change the picture. You are an embarrassment to the Packers."

That's not fair. Garage is what the Packers are all about. The socialistic system of the small markets feeding off the monies generated by the big market teams.

alan markus said...

I predict a 90/10 split on media coverage of the recount; 90% where Kloppenhag gains a vote; 10% where Prosser picks up a vote.

garage mahal said...

So Prosser after saying the charge of a post-election meeting w/ Walker was "malicious" and "ridiculous", admits now that yea, he may have went to the governors office after all! He can't quite remember though. He does remember driving to Waukesha the day after the election, and driving back to Madison. And if he did go to the governors office, it was only to pick up some pens for some international students. I'm sure that's exactly what went down.

James said...

"Of course the precincts that trend towards Kloppenburg will be slow to report. They want to see how many votes they have to manufacture. It's a very old tactic that has been proven quite effective (e.g. Kennedy, Franken)."

One way to eliminate this problem is to have all the precincts report at exactly the same time.

Require precincts report that they are "ready" but do not accept any actual counts until all precincts have signaled they are "ready".

Once all are "ready" the precincts are ordered to report and BANG a complete count is in with no opportunity for "adjustments" by conniving late reporters.

Tregonsee said...

I love it when a (Liberal) plan falls apart!

garage mahal said...

If a chain of custody was broken, in what county would think that would occur? If you guessed Waukesha, that was a good guess.

Waukesha — The state Supreme Court recount got off to a wobbly start in Waukesha County Wednesday.

Just a little more "human error".

Dust Bunny Queen said...

A swing of that magnitude at this stage, no matter the direction, hardly inspires confidence in the electoral process.

How can we tolerate such sloppy and careless elections in this country?

The system is just rife with fraud and leave us (voters) with the uneasy knowledge that our votes don't amount to a bucket of warm spit.

The system MUST be fixed, voter ID, guaranteed that ALL votes will be counted and that there CANNOT be sudden surprises of magically found votes.

If the system is not fixed, then our so called elected leaders have zero credibility and our country will fall ever further into third world dictatorial status.

Larry J said...

One way to eliminate this problem is to have all the precincts report at exactly the same time.

Require precincts report that they are "ready" but do not accept any actual counts until all precincts have signaled they are "ready".


The problem, James, is that this idea makes entirely too much sense. Also, since it makes it harder to cheat, it must be racist or something. It still won't stop the dead from voting and may in fact cause more of their votes appear because if you can't sandbag, you'll just cheat up front.

Seriously, in addition to your fine suggestion, I propose that all voting registers get purged. Make everyone register to vote. While we're at it, make them show proof they're eligible to vote. Then, on voting day, make them show proof of identity. That purple ink they used in Iraq to discourage multiple voting seems reasonable, too. But of course, doing any of that would disadvantage Democrats and therefore must be racist.

PaulV said...

OT, but relying on postal service on an all mail election may be mistake

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/article_e3533407-73d4-5919-92c7-e53710c82b2c.html

bagoh20 said...

So does a recount fix "errors" or create them?

Skyler said...

Could the difference be absentee voters and their ballots getting counted as they arrive?

ALH said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ALH said...

Bagoh2o,

I wonder the same thing. A recount doesn't inherently seem more likely to give a more accurate picture of the "real" vote count than the canvas process post election.

Thanks dual frequent for the link

mtrobertsattorney said...

Even the Trooper nods.

If it weren't for the Green Bay Packers, there would be no "big market teams."

The money going to the Packers is simply paying homage.

Maguro said...

Just a little more "human error".

Is this supposed be ironic? Your link goes to a story that attributes mismatched seal numbers on a bag of ballots to...human error. And both campaigns agreed that the ballots thein were legit and should be counted.

So what exactly is your beef? Do you even read the stories you link to? There is nothing at your link remotely suggestive of fraud in Waukesha county.

vw - guncop; the only kind of cop to be

ALH said...

Trooper York said
That's not fair. Garage is what the Packers are all about. The socialistic system of the small markets feeding off the monies generated by the big market teams.

Please keep that money coming, New York! Thirteen World Championships is not nearly enough.

Michael Haz said...

A reliable source of recount information is the Kloppenburg-o-meter.

Kirk Parker said...

PaulV,

"Maybe"??? No, the word "maybe" is not remotely fitting in that sentence. Try "absolutely".

T J Sawyer said...

The Kloppenburg-o-meter.

Truly a Supreme idea!

Alex said...

This is another reason we need to go to all digital elections. Database no lie.

Big Mike said...

@Alex, if you knew what hackers can do, and how weakly the electronic voting machines are protected, you'd opt for paper and nothing else.

Alex said...

@Alex, if you knew what hackers can do, and how weakly the electronic voting machines are protected, you'd opt for paper and nothing else.

Spoken like a true ignoramus on technology matters. The fact is you get better, more solid audit trails with databases then paper. You would have a MUCH harder time hacking and faking the numbers with a fully computerized voting system then the current model.

Sir Archy said...

To Professor Althouse.

Madam,

I pray you do not take it amiss if your old Correspondent, dead these Two-Hundred-Sixty Years and more, should, as something germane to this Topick, instance his late Attempt to enroll as an Elector at Massachusetts. The Dead, as everyone knows, have frequently cast their Ballots, but seldom have they met with such Vexation, Viz.:—

Having apply'd my Ghostly Mind with more than ordinary Attention to the Election at Massachusetts, I resolv'd with such Firmness as a Spectre may possess to enroll myself as an American Elector. 'Tis plain neither my Phantasmal State nor Foreign Origin were any Impediments to the Exercise of that Office. I may tell you, Madam, I had my Hopes rais'd just t'other Day, when I met a fine, worthy-seeming Gentleman here upon the Astral Plane, one Mr. Curley, who told me he had been, in Life, Lord Mayor of Boston; furthermore, says he, if I so wish'd, he could see to my Enrollment as an Elector.  You may imagine with what excited Anticipation I heard this News.  Mr. Curley inform'd me that he was in daily Communication with several living Gentlemen of his Party at Boston, and that they should see to my Enrollment. I reply'd that it was an Honour to be so allow'd once again to climb, in my Ghostly way, the Polling Booth Steps; but, I wisht to know how my Vote was to giv'n Effect?  Mr. Curley says I needn't worry. He would see to Everything.

In the mean time, I had closely to consider whom I should chuse.  I settled upon Col. Brown, as one sympathetick to my Humours if not my Principles; for, I had always the highest Regard for the plain, direct Speach, and open Frankness of a Military Man.  All the while, Mrs. Coakley, of the Party opposite to Col. Brown's Tories, habitually pronounc'd Weasel Words; and those she said were few, tho' decorated to an Excess with rhetorical Clinquant & Tinsel.  In Truth, Madam, she seem'd more a lying Leveler than an honest Whig.

I went to Mr. Curley earlier Today with my Vote.  He laugh'd in my Face, saying the Matter had been decided.  "What?" says I, "My Ballot has not been cast! I should be pleas'd to inform you how I would vote."  "You are not only a duly enroll'd Voter," says he, "in a Voting Machine in East Boston, but your Vote for Mrs. Coakley has aleady been registered.  Did you honestly think the Opinions of either the Living or the Dead carry much Weight with the Democratick Party?"

Alas! Madam, I am deceiv'd!  I am to be a mere Cypher—An unreasoning, disembody'd Wraith amongst the Gears & Cogs of a Machine.  Altho' I have been dead all these many Years, 'tis an hard Fate, Madam! An hard Fate!

Praying you should ne'er be so ill-us'd, I am

     Madam,
         Your humble & obt. Servant,
             Archbd. B—

Fen said...

Libtard: Packer players are union -- Charles Woodson and others players have given their support to WI public workers. You don't, so you must hate black people

ken in sc said...

Sir Archie did good!

Paco Wové said...

Huzzah! For the return of Sir Archy. Perhaps there is some hope for the future of this blog (lately so beset by small-minded trolls) after all.

Dual Freq said...

I was glad to help out this morning with the numbers. Looks like they added quite a few more wards to the totals since then.

The long and the short is that Prosser is back to a net gain of 14.

Recount:
Prosser:220,774
Kloppenburg:186,052

Original Count:
Prosser:220,655
Kloppenburg:185,947

The biggest change so far was in the Town of Royalton Wards 1-3 in Waupaca County. Prosser had a net loss of 22 there with only 299 votes in the ward. I sure hope Dane county doesn't have a 7% error like that ward.

878 of 1,214 wards had a net change of 0 votes, so it looks like the voting machines did a pretty decent job of coming up with reliable totals on election night.

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