October 30, 2011

Iowa poll: Cain 23, Romney 22, Paul 12... Perry 7.

Fascinating.

What's the most interesting thing about this new poll?
Cain's on top.
Romney's doing so well when he's eschewed campaigning in Iowa.
Paul in the double digits.
Perry's tanking.
Whatever happened to Bachmann, who won the Iowa straw poll?
  
pollcode.com free polls 

45 comments:

Tim said...

Republicans will nominate a candidate no one loves, Romney, and the nation will be confronted with another awful choice between the now experienced, affirmative action loser, or the status-quo, establishment-favored loser.

America loses. Again.

Tim said...

...or the status-quo, Republican establishment-favored loser.

Still distressing.

Big Mike said...

2-3-4-1-5 in that order.

Everybody knows that the straw vote is meaningless, even the newspaper articles that hyped the results usually stuck in a line or two someplace cautioning people that the straw vote was meaningless. The straw vote gave reporters something to write about and made a few people in Iowa some money. That's all they ever were good for.

As for Cain, he's authentic in a season where people are desperate for authenticity. Whether he'd be a good President is another question, but no question that he'd be better than the either of the next two in line.

And anyone would be better than the current incumbent.

Pastafarian said...

Tim, I get the impression you're a glass-half-full kind of guy.

This is the best field of candidates, in terms of depth, that I can remember. I'd take 3 of these top 4 (I don't smoke pot, so I don't have any reason to support Ron Paul), plus Gingrich is still lurking back there.

Best case scenario, in my mind, for the Republicans and for the republic: We Republicans do NOT close ranks around a consensus candidate, and we have these guys fight it out right down to the last state's primary and we have a meaningful convention. We'd keep many states involved and interested that are often neglected; we keep the country's interest as the media would focus on the horse race aspect of it; and the liberal media wouldn't be able to focus on discrediting and Palinizing one particular Republican.

Shouting Thomas said...

Saw Perry on O'Reilly. No wonder he's tanking.

He makes the algore look like a natural on screen. Perry is a very wooden speaker. To say the least.

I'm resigned to an Obama second term. Don't see the Republican nominee generating any enthusiasm. Nominating Cain could throw a wrench in the Obama plans to run on the Vote for me or you're a racist platform.

But, other than that, I don't think Cain has enough experience to weather a national campaign.

Romney is not going to excite anybody.

themightypuck said...

Cain and Perry appeal to the same people so if Cain goes up, Perry is going down. Romney is going to sputter along. I wonder where Paul's people will go in the end?

pm317 said...

I am glad Perry is at the bottom.. hope he fizzles away in the next few weeks. Bachmann peaked too early. Romney will be the nominee but he will have a nice dilemma on his hands, Cain or Rubio for VP? I will go for Cain because that would take away some of the black vote from Obama. Obama is stuck with gaffetastic Biden. There is no one with a name recognition who can be the Dem Rubio.

{The most irritating thing to look at Romney's picture -- that little strand of his hair on the right side of his temple -- what kind of a style is that?}

Bill said...

Not enthusiastic about any of them. They're all better than Obama (even Paul at this point). It's scary to think of Cain in a national campaign and scary to think of Romney as president.

Save us Zombie Reagan!

The Crack Emcee said...

What do you mean "What happened to Bachmann?" She revealed she's anti-vax crazy and, in one of the only instances of sanity this election season, finally gave us enough ammo to ignore her.

The only mystery to me, after the quack-related death of Steve Jobs - and the complete lack of concern which NewAgers "influenced" him - is how we came to our senses in Bachmann's case.

I think it speaks to the skepticism surrounding conservatives as libs are allowed to do whatever the hell they want.

Shouting Thomas said...

Best case scenario to me looks like resignation to an Obama second terms and a divided government, with the Republicans holding the House and winning the Senate.

Deadlock isn't so bad. Limits what the bastards can do.

Sixty Grit said...
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Lucius said...

I've grown increasingly warm to a Romney nomination, myself.

Though since I'm very friendly to the historical memory of Nixon, Ford, and GHW Bush, that shouldn't surprise.

He's more informed and telegenic than, say, Pawlenty, or a lot of the other guys who, hypothetically, could have been vying with him for a shot.

Cain has some impressive aspects, but I'm still dim on this idea of running him as V-P. The nation needs to recover from this affair with novelty-candidates.

I have a fantasy of Sarah Palin as Ambassador to Great Britain. Maybe Cain should be US Trade Representative.

Tim said...

Pasta,

I'll take that has an optimistic compliment on my outlook. I used to be an optimist, but then 53% of my fellow citizens voted for a guy obviously much less qualified for president than the obviously unqualified John Edwards, and the smartest minds of my generation screwed the international finance system, albeit after a very strong push from Clinton's DOJ and the Banking Queen, Barney Frank.

Anyway, I respectfully disagree on the quality of our candidates. I had exceptional hopes for Perry, having had extensive exposure to Texas as a frequent business visitor over these last few years; there was no way to predict he'd be so clearly unready for prime time.

And if Perry is everything Liberals thought G.W. Bush was, Romney is everything Conservatives thought G.W. Bush was - the thoughtless embodiment of the establishment, hewing as close to Democrat policy objectives and principles as one can while maintaining a veneer of Republican identity. His health care reform in Massachusetts differs from Obama's only in scale; it is failing for the same reason Obama's will fail (presuming it stays on the books, for argument's sake). In enacting that program, he demonstrated to me both a failure of judgement and a comfort with large, unsustainable, liberty strangling, future cannibalizing big government.

As for the others, they are non-starters. Cain is the Republican Obama - short on real experience, and he won't peel of Black votes like his supporters hope he does.

Anyway, I see Romney as our candidate, for better or worse. I desperately hope that whoever it is, they beat Obama. While the current electorate deserves Obama for being dumb enough to elect him, my children sure as hell don't, and for their sake, I hope we elect the lesser of two evils in November '12.

Pastafarian said...

Bill, Reagan wasn't perfect either.

If Reagan ran today, debate moderators from MSNBC or Democratic Underground or whichever black hole of socialism the Republicans would choose for their debate venue would have gotcha questions ready for him. Any hesitation on Reagan 's part and he'd be portrayed as functionally retarded. All you'd here from the media would be how he divorced his first wife after scandalous whispers, and how his current wife is some sort of astrology fruitcake.

And you, and many conservatives, would pine for a better candidate, without all of these shortcomings.

We're electing a president, not a god.

NYTNewYorker said...

I'll not resign myself to a second Obama term until the moment he is reelected.

Until then it's game on.
If the worst happens I will resist and obstruct, making for a very long 4 years indeed.

At my age I aim to kill him politically before he kills me with his policy.

Pastafarian said...

Crack's right, Bachmann is a nut. Sixty, you're acting like one too. What the he'll is up with that outburst?

Tim, I agree that Perry comes across as a dim-bulb. Fortunately, he's running for POTUS and not for Chief Jeopardy Contestant of the US. If we were looking for pure intelligence, the guy we have in there now wouldn't be bad. But intelligence and judgement are two different things.

I can remember Reagan being eulogized as "dumber than a stump."

Sixty Grit said...
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Sixty Grit said...
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Andy R. said...

Since, we all know that Cain isn't going to be the nominee, it appears that the only serious candidate (Romney), is on track for the nomination.

Sixty Grit said...
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edutcher said...

The scariest part of that is definitely 3. Since Paul is talking third party, I fear enough Ronulans and other Libertarians would vote for him, similar to last time around with the 7 mil that stayed home and the 1% who voted for Barr, that they would hand it again to GodZero.

I also think Pasta's basically right and puck's on the money about Perry. If so, all we have to fear is that Drs Rove and Krauthammer are correct (and I agree with Kraut that Herman's winging it) and Herman is sinking slowly, rather than quickly.

Paco Wové said...

Hey Andy, are you ever going to engage with my questions about "Occupy [your city here]"?

Bill said...

Sigh. As a Democrat, I've concluded that Romney is the only candidate I could really see myself voting for. I love Huntsman, but the man has no chance of getting the nomination.

If Cain is the nominee, Obama will win in a landslide. His 9-0-9 (they revised it, apparently) plan isn't viable.

The Daily Show made a good point about Romney--he's been "Mr. Consistent" in regards to the polls--always in 2nd. However, his positions have been anything but consistent.

Time to anchor in...it's going to be a long, long time until 2016.

Sidenote: Saw a fantastic Gaddafi costume last night. Very impressed.

Andy R. said...

Paco: as you noted, the signal to noise ratio on the previous thread took a turn for the worst, and I bailed out to go carve pumpkins anyway. If you want to continue our conversation, let me know your email address.

America's Politico said...

We cannot accept this poll. We want Perry to be the nominee of the GOP. Please Iowa voters do vote for him. Perry is from TX, he knows best for America.

The only way we will win the election everywhere is for the POTUS to face Perry. We must do what it takes, anything and everything, to get Perry to the top. We plan to release another statement about how Romney's plan in MA was discussed at the final hour of the health care bill passage.

Paco Wové said...

Andy-

check out The True Story of Chanukkah.

Peter Hoh said...

Other than in fundraising, is there a mechanism within the GOP that would allow the party establishment to significantly alter the preferences of the primary voters?

In other words, if the primary voters want Cain, what's to prevent him from winning the nomination?

Jason (the commenter) said...

Whatever happened to Bachmann...

Whatever happened to the social conservatives? This is Iowa, and the only person specifically thought of as appealing to social conservatives is in fourth place!

John said...

"Paul is talking third party"? I must have missed that.

He refused to be pinned down any further than to say he had no intention of running as a 3rd party candidate.

Are you saying that this is the same thing as saying that he might?

Are you going to make Romney, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, wassername pledge no third party run?

Are you going to hold them to the same standards?

Paul has been a loyal Repub for the past 20 years or so. Why would anyone think he would act like that whore up in Alaska who refused to accept the primary results last year?

Or is she OK because she comes from a good Repo family and is respectful of the establishment?

I think you are out of line here.

John Henry

John said...

Wassername = Bachman

It was on the tip of my tongue but I couldn't think of it.

John Henry

Jason (the commenter) said...

Big Mike: Everybody knows that the straw vote is meaningless...

After her first debate Bachmann was extremely popular and I was among the many people who supported her.

I think her big problems have been her personality, in the debates she treats her fellow Republicans with contempt, and her message, which is very off-putting. It's like she's trying to appeal to social conservatives and women, but ends up trying to appeal to stereotypes of those two groups. And she seems to have forgotten all about the Tea Party.

From what she's said in the debates, she expects women and social conservatives to vote for her for no other reason than because she's a female social conservative.

She's literally turning voters away. I'm a gay fiscal conservative. If she's only going to deal with female social conservative issues, why should I vote for her? Why should independents?

And from the poll results, it's obvious women and social conservatives don't find her identity politics very appealing either.

Cedarford said...

pm317 - " Romney will be the nominee but he will have a nice dilemma on his hands, Cain or Rubio for VP? I will go for Cain because that would take away some of the black vote from Obama."

Agree Romney is shaping up to be the nominee, but Marco Rubio is stating he, like Christie, is not ready to leave his 1st statewide office position to be VP. Adamantly.

As for Cain -

1. The guy is too old at 65 (Romney is 64 with good health and parents that lived to 89 and 92 in full mental vigor). Versus Cain, who has a shaky health history. Assuming you want to return to a practice pre-Dubya - of selecting a younger, healthier VP backup - Cain is not the likely choice.
2. Anyone with the illusion Cain will end the black voter loyalty to a Democrat, especially a black democrat, is sadly mistaken. Obama got 94% of the vote against conservatives beloved Alan Keyes.
3. A VP should help fill in gaps a candidate has. Cain only adds his own deeper gaps to areas Romney is not thought adempt in - foreign policy, military. And his "wheelhouse" is as a much less successful businessman than Romney. (15 years in fast food exec position, asked to leave after his sales declined 40% and his Godfathers chain went from 4th to 11th ranked in sales during his time)
4. Cain might not want this. He got in to sell books, expand his conservative pundit media empire. Like Palin, he is poised to collect gold - privately tossing his red meat to hungry yahoos wanting "the pure stuff". Why ruin his twilight years stuck on a Biden or Cheney low pay track?

Cedarford said...

Why would anyone think he would act like that whore up in Alaska who refused to accept the primary results last year?

===================
Jason - The whore up in Alaska correctly thought the people of Alaska wanted her back - and the Tea Party crazies had nominated another dog like Sharron Angle and perky Christine O'Donnell the voters would not go with.
She was right.

As for Paul, he knows he can live with Romney or Perry or even Newt over Obama. And he would just be playing a spoiler for Obama's reelection if he went 3rd Party and close the door to any libertarian running under the Republican brand..

America's Politico said...

Don't waste your time. There is the nominee that GOP wants: Perry. Rubio will never be the WP now, since the WashPost has dug a story about his false claims about leaving Cuba. He is done, toast, finished. He cannot never be the VP. You heard it here first.

Go for Perry, You will have laughs of his wide ego. The press will be busy. GOP will be excited.

Then, the thud. POTUS Obama will have debates. Smart guy, experienced guy, vs. the idiot from TX. Even the die-hard GOP will either not vote for Perry or vote for POTUS.

Yes, this is the best scenario.

GOP had a chance with Romney, but remember, GOP likes to kill its potential by going for the jugular. And, thanks god for that.

traditionalguy said...

Watching the politicos twist and shout is getting entertaining.

Hit piece after hit piece is popping up as an introduction to the flamboyant failure pretending to be running for President...and the opinion polls keep him on top through it all.

Schieffer on CBS tried to paint Cain as a Cancer promoter and an electrocutioner of Mexicans whose bodies would then be eaten by moat alligators....seriously.

It was not an interview but it was a hostile debate. But Herman maintained his connection with voters as a rational and respectful man.

The abortion issue "necklacing" really did no harm. The voters understand by now that abortion wll never be dealt with another way unless Schieffer can get Cain to say he wants all pregnant women kept behind electrified fences and alligator moats, but given free cigarettes.

Ritmo Re-Animated said...

But, but, but, but Pastafarian was so hopeful about Perry's chances!!!

Ritmo Re-Animated said...

Fortunately, he's running for POTUS and not for Chief Jeopardy Contestant of the US.

Lol. All those bozos come across like they're interviewing for the job of America's Game Show Host.

In fact, I think that's the Republican idea of what the presidency's all about.

Methadras said...

What happened to Bachmann? Simple, it's called competition and in the marketplace of ideas, she lost. It's as simple as that. The electorate is seeing something better than what she can provide and if she doesn't understand that, well, that's her problem.

sorepaw said...
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sorepaw said...
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pm317 said...
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pm317 said...

Cedarford said...
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Yeah, I kind of agree with you about Cain's chances at VP but if he keeps doing well it will become a problem for the Republicans and for him if neither wants it. If not Rubio, they should go for New Mexico's governor, Susana Martinez..

traditionalguy said...

You guys relegating the best candidate running to a lucky VP role are as bad as last January's pontificators on TCU's appearance in the Rose Bowl against monster Wisconsin from the BIG 10.

Wake up and smell the pizza!

Herman is not a Little Sister of the Poor, any more than TCU was.

And ask Meade how the little league TCU's QB Andy Dalton did today as the (4 and 12 last year) Cincinnati Bengals are already 5 and 2 and defeating major league teams.

Good talent is where you find it. It's about character.

New key players are always being raised up and old ones are being removed. Pay attention guys.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

The Crack Emcee said...

What do you mean "What happened to Bachmann?" She revealed she's anti-vax crazy...



Yes, indeed. I was willing at least to listen to her, but when she popped off with that I quit listening. That was deadly ignorance.

sarge said...

sarge here sarge thinks its odd them 'publicans aint even trying to field a serious candidate whts up wiv that? all thar needed was a serious candidate to win but seem happy to give it up to obamai...iz it cuz them corporitistas know obami is actually in most every way a republican hisself??

sarge thinks so

ps 66grit how them leg ulcers doin?
when the blood poison gets to ya it aint at all unusual to git even more outta yer head....