June 14, 2012

Tommy Thompson is crushing Tammy Baldwin in the race to replace Herb Kohl in the Senate.

Rasmussen says it's 52% to 36%. Ouch.

Thompson isn't the candidate yet. Popular though he is, other Republicans are giving him competition. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, no one is challenging Tammy Baldwin, the congresswoman who has for many years represented the district that includes Madison. Where are all the Democrats in this erstwhile blue state? Is there no one out there or have they somehow agreed to let Tammy have it? There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area.


Nevertheless, Baldwin doesn't do all that badly against the other 3 Republican candidates. Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde only beat her by 2 percentage points. And she actually beats Jeff Fitzgerald by 1.
Baldwin earns overwhelming support from voters with a favorable opinion of the unions, while all four Republicans pick up similar support from those who regard the unions unfavorably.

All four Republicans continue to lead among male voters, while Baldwin leads among female voters against all her GOP opponents except Thompson. It’s Thompson 46%, Baldwin 40% among women voters in the state.

Baldwin picks up 86% to 91% support among Wisconsin Democrats against three of the Republicans, but against Thompson support in her own party falls to 74%. The former governor leads Baldwin 51% to 32% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. The other GOP candidates are also ahead among these voters but by narrower margins.

49 comments:

The Drill SGT said...

maybe she has no primary opponent, because nobody wants to get thrashed by Thompson.

Tom Spaulding said...

Who best represents the typical citizens of Wisconsin and will vote for the best interests of the typical Wisconsinite?

Former Governor, former HHS head, the Boy From Elroy...or Tammy Baldwin.

traditionalguy said...

Thompson is an offense to a good Tea Partier. He was a classical RINO and is now too old to serve 6 years.

I bet Hovde is swept in by the coming anti-Obama rip tides.

Triangle Man said...

TT perfected Wisconsin's structural budget deficit and the accounting maneuvers to hide it from the public. A vote for Thompson is a vote for the good old days.

MadisonMan said...

Tammy/Tommy would have been an interesting choice in the early 90s. Now?

Ugh. Which dinosaur will go extinct first?

Kris said...

TT is the classic example of a guy who we like despite some of his specific policies. Neumann will never win a major office in WI because he has crazy eyes. It's honestly that simple.

garage mahal said...

Ron Johnson, Scott Walker, and Tommy Thompson. You suuuuure can pick 'em Wisconsin!

BarrySanders20 said...

"There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area."

It's odd, but they never seem to think about this. Falk was another example. I wonder if they tried hard to get Ron Kind to run. He would be a very strong state-wide D candidate.

Tommy will be senator if he wins the primary, which is looking likely. The irony of that is Walker's statement this week that he won the recall because people see him as a reformer, which he is. Walker then said that the senate seat would go to the R who embraces the reformer mantle.

I can see the other three candidates doing that, but certainly not Tommy. He's about as far from a reformer as you can get. Tommy is inseparable from insider cronyism.

Fitzgerald would be the best senator out of the R group for anyone wanting reform in D.C. He would beat Tammy in the end because I don't see how she appeals to the areas that just reelected Walker, but he won't beat Tommy. A Tammy-knocker, not a Tommy-knocker.

So, is it legal to refer to a lesbian named Tammy as Old Tammy-Knockers? I googled that term and, yes, there was a stripper from Baltimore named Tammy Knockers.

Cedarford said...

Democrats have started to have a bad problem with Kingmakers and "The Powers that Be" that control the nominating process in certain states and cities.

Witness Massachusetts, where two unlikable women have been designated as "our choice for Senator, which MUST be female!" - leaving all the fairly popular serving state reps and Congressmen, penis-cursed, on the outs with the Boston Potentates.

Chicago, Atlanta..where no one runs without the blessing of the heriditary black chieftan families and the Crowns and Pritzkers and Daileys...

Somehow, the mindset in Dem movers and shakers is since Baldwin is from Madison, female and lesbian - no other candidate is worthy.

MadisonMan said...

Baldwin. Falk. Kloppenburg. Clifford.

All successful Dane County women who won state-wide elections.

Cedarford said...

traditionalguy said...
Thompson is an offense to a good Tea Partier. He was a classical RINO and is now too old to serve 6 years.

I bet Hovde is swept in by the coming anti-Obama rip tides

===============
I keep hoping the right wing morons will realize that blowing it by fielding unelectable candidates vs a "traitor RINO" does not "SEND A MESSAGE" -

It sends Harry Reid and Coons to the Senate for 6 years with kisses planted on their butts by self-destructive Tea Party members.

frank said...

That anyone who would vote for somebody other than TGT in the primary, when control of the US Senate is at stake, would have the same Falking myopia to write in Ron Paul for President. You would risk keeping Harry Reid & company to pick court appointees and a certain veto control over federal government just to ride your favorite hobby horse? Clinton was right--'amateurs' are not limited to the Dem party.

Original Mike said...

"There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area."

I'm seeing another picture of slack-jawed "progressives" in our future.

(Personlly, I'd like to see us risk a Hovde/Baldwin race. With great risk comes great reward.)

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Can't wait to see the polls after Republicans start running ads of Tammy in her blue fist t-shirt.

Someone should send Mike and Graeme a thank you note. These guys are priceless!

frank said...

And don't forget--TGT is still VERY popular in WI--he could easily get Romney 2% in coat tail effect for 10 electorial votes.

X said...

you do not want a Ron and Tammy situation in the Senate.

Chuck66 said...

I really like Tommy but the go-go days of being able to have big gov't are over. Not sure if Tommy has the guts to vote for reforms.

Chuck66 said...

"There ought to have been some very serious concern about her ability to appeal to people outside of the Madison area."

Kind of like the famous quote by the NYC liberal. "I don't see who Nixon could have won. I don't know anyone who voted for him"

Chuck66 said...

Even in the recall, Douglas county (Superior) voted for Barrett something like 62-38%.

Douglas county went for Tommy in all three of his re-election runs. Shows that Tommy wins where other Republicans don't.

Original Mike said...

"he could easily get Romney 2% in coat tail effect for 10 electorial votes."

Hmmmm. That's a point. But is there such a thing as up-ballot coat tails?

Original Mike said...

What's the matter with Douglas County, anyways?

garage mahal said...

In the Great Wisconsin Experiment, why not get rid of schools and teachers completely, and replace it with some sort of private prison/school system. The inmates can serve as "instructors", of sorts. The kids can learn where a tear drop tattoo comes from, and they can take field trips to the weight yard. The kids will love it! Kids these days are brainwashed into thinking teachers and firefighters are "heroes", and naggingly say that's what they want to be when they grow up. Barf! In the private prison system, we'll need, uh, more inmates, of course. But is prison really a bad place to be anyway? Maybe kids should be looking up to inmates as heroes. Just thinking out loud here, and I'm sure our ALEC Overlords have probably thought up something along these lines.

Reforms. Forward!

Original Mike said...

"In the Great Wisconsin Experiment, why not get rid of schools and teachers completely..."

I stopped reading at that point. You just had an abject lesson in how unpersuasuve hyperbole and extremism are. You'd think you might have taken a lesson from it.

frank said...

Original Mike said...
"he could easily get Romney 2% in coat tail effect for 10 electorial votes."

Hmmmm. That's a point. But is there such a thing as up-ballot coat tails?

See chuck 66, supra. Romney will be begging TGT to let him appear and introduce him at campaign stops. So yes, when you got a guy like TGT, elected 4 times as Gov [a record] by landslides, you've got a very unusual situation. The WI presidental race will be close. Romney will want TGT at his side--not Walker, as good as he is. Everywhere [like Superior] except Waukesha-like counties.

Tim said...

Garage, what's wrong with Ron Johnson?

For those of you who are opposed to RHINO bashing, what's the point in electing people who won't even bother with things like social security reform?

I'd rather elect democrats if electing moderate republicans, like Romney, means more of the same. If enough democrats get their way in congress maybe more Americans will see what happens when they get their way (think Europe).

frank said...

old computer saying: garage mahal in=garbage out,i.e,. LOOK! SQUIRREL!

MadisonMan said...

What's the matter with Douglas County, anyways?

Winter.

EMD said...

Garage, that might be your longest post.

And also your stupidest.

chickelit said...

@garage: Here's a Wau-pun for what you wrote at 11:53.

Happy Birthday, BTW.

garage mahal said...

Welp, we're a red state now. Even North Dakota seems to be more competitive for Democrats than Wisconsin. Republicans own Wisconsin now, let's see what they do with it. Walker said "there will be a tremendous takeoff in jobs after the recalls". Not off to a great start though, two businesses closed up shop this week. But, like Iraq was, maybe things will be great if we just give it another six months.

A. Shmendrik said...

Fitzgerald must be a sad piece of work if he is trailing her.

Tommy? He's not ideal, but I'll take him as a replacement for Senator Nobody, who has been warming what could have been a valuable seat, for 24 freaking years.

Each time Kohl ran, he reached in his pocket and loaned his campaign $7M at the start of the campaign, thereby intimidating potential Republican challengers. As a result he had a cake walk each time, and immediately forgave the loan after the election. His campaign's contributions from donors were a trivial fraction of the loan amount. Given his lack of performance and accomplishment in office, I'd say that what we have witnessed was a rich man obtaining a nice trophy for his mantlepiece.

But enough about Kohl. If it has to be Tommy, let it be Tommy! But never Tammy. She'll take a licking in November.

AllenS said...

Googling "there will be a tremendous takeoff in jobs after the recalls" returns a:

No results found for "there will be a tremendous takeoff in jobs after the recalls".

In other words, Walker didn't say such a thing.

garage mahal said...

“I think you’re going to see a tremendous takeoff.”

Walker blamed the state’s employment woes on the recalls, saying employers are hesitant to add jobs during times of political uncertainty but that there would be a “dramatic turnaround” after June 5.

“There is a tremendous enthusiasm built up for additional jobs,” he said. “I think you’re going to see a tremendous takeoff.”

Patrick said...

In the Great Wisconsin Experiment, why not get rid of schools and teachers completely, and replace it with some sort of private prison/school system.

Because reforms, you know, equal sending kids to school in prison.

Make sure to celebrate responsibly tonight, Garage. We wouldn't want you coming in here all hungover and cranky!

rick said...

Garage said "Walker blamed the state’s employment woes on the recalls, saying employers are hesitant to add jobs during times of political uncertainty but that there would be a “dramatic turnaround” after June 5.

“There is a tremendous enthusiasm built up for additional jobs,” he said. “I think you’re going to see a tremendous takeoff.”

Garage, June 5th was 9 days ago. You may want to give a bit longer than that for the jobs take off.

BarrySanders20 said...

"If it has to be Tommy, let it be Tommy! But never Tammy. She'll take a licking in November."

Hah. She'll take a licking any darn month.

Jay said...

How can this be?!

Unions are popular!

Obama is awesome!

I don't know anybody that would vote for Tommy Thompson, dammit!!!

Original Mike said...

"Garage, what's wrong with Ron Johnson?"

I'm sure he lies through his fucking teeth.

edutcher said...

Take heart.

MOE = 4.5.

Ras' ops aren't as good at the state level.

RonF said...

In the Great Wisconsin Experiment, why not get rid of schools and teachers completely, and replace it with some sort of private prison/school system.

Plenty of people think that's what we already have.

If you want something truly revolutionary, let's try this: close all the public schools. Then, every year, each parents gets a voucher for a dollar amount equal to what the school district was spending on the schools on a per-pupil basis. The parents can use that voucher at any school they want to that meets the current certification standards.

I believe in public education. It is sound policy for every child in the country to get a proper education and for the public to fund that education. However, I see no requirement that publicly funded education need be publicly operated.

This is not anti-education. The children get educated. This is not anti-teachers. The teachers will be employed, as all those private schools that will spring up will have to hire teachers. Think of all the money we can save in the State's Department of Education. The money going to the schools won't drop, but they'll have much less work to do. They won't have to worry about whether a school is really getting the job done. The parents will tell them by pulling their kids out of the school if it's not educating the children.

The public schools tell us time and time again that they need better parental involvement. What better way than to close them and force the parents to make choices.

We live in a democracy. We have ideals of liberty and individual choice. What better way to fulfill those than to give people the freedom to make the choice of where and how their child will be educated? You are pro-choice, I presume?

furious_a said...

You suuuuure can pick 'em Wisconsin!

Garage means "...candidates who thrash their Democratic opponents in the General." It's starting to become commonplace.

elkh1 said...

The Democratic Politburo of the People's Republic of Wisconsin appointed Tammy to Herb Kohl's seat knowing the Nov election is a formality. They are playing by the same play book used by the Democratic Politburo of the People's Republic of Massachusetts appointing Cloakley to Kennedy's seat, and 1/32 Cherokee Warren to Scott Brown's seat.

Those Democrats who were not approved would be sidelined early, like the disappearance of the little woman who started the Recall and Warren's primary competitors.

Triangle Man said...

I stopped reading at that point. You just had an abject lesson in how unpersuasuve hyperbole and extremism are. You'd think you might have taken a lesson from it.

Come on O.Mike It's a plank in the modern conservative platform. Vouchers should be provided to bring educational choice into the free market. Families should be able to choose among various public and private options for their children's education. In the long run won't the public school lose to charter schools and elite private schools?

Triangle Man said...

See, Original Mike, RonF knows the deal. Get with the program. Think of how much better our nation will be when your tax dollars can go to a voucher that will be paid to a school that can infuse its students with traditional values that includes the study of Greek and Latin and Intelligent Design.

Maguro said...

See, Original Mike, RonF knows the deal. Get with the program. Think of how much better our nation will be when your tax dollars can go to a voucher that will be paid to a school that can infuse its students with traditional values that includes the study of Greek and Latin and Intelligent Design.

Great snark. But is there any evidence to support the notion that public schools do a better job educating their students better than private schools? If not, why would vouchers change that?

David said...

So what if Tommy is offensive to Tea Partiers. Such it up tea partiers. President Romney will need a Republican Senate if anything is to get done. Here is a seat that has been a lock for the Democrats because everyone likes good old Herb Kohl. People like Tommy too. He's virtually certain to win if he gets the nomination.

Instead of looking at the talk from the other Republican candidates, look at the achievements of Tommy Thompson. He was able to get Wisconsin off the escalator of ever increasing taxes, which had seemed impossible before Tommy came along. Before Scott Walker, no single person had done as much for Conservative principles in Wisconsin as Tommy Thompson.

Suck it up, grow up and vote for Tommy.

chickelit said...

Obviously, Tommy has twice the Tea as Tammy has and that's what's important.

furious_a said...

Suc[k] it up tea partiers.

Tea Partiers will happily self-destruct in primaries (O'Donnell, Angle), but will crawl over broken glass in the General (rest of 2010).

Michael Haz said...

TGT is a remarkable politician. he has a memory like no other Wisconsin politician I can remember. He seems to know half the residents of the state by first name, and can remember where he met them, and when.

He will win the primary.

Then he will crush Tammy Baldwin in the general election.

In running Tammy Baldwin for senate, the Democrat Party of Wisconsin has again made the fatal error of believing that all of Wisconsin is just like Madison. Thank you ever-so-much Mike Tate and Graeme Zielinski. We sincerely appreciate your work.

The Democrats in Wisconsin have no bench strength. That is no doubt because the most radical leftists have taken the party over and pushed their own candidates to the forefront.