October 22, 2012

"Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week."

Says Rasmussen, with a new poll that has Romney at 50% and Obama at 46%. The others that have moved toward Romney are Florida, Missouri and North Carolina.

As long as we're looking at Rasmussen, the daily presidential tracking poll has Romney at 49% and Obama at 47%, and the new swing state tracking poll has Romney at 49% and Obama at 46%.

49 comments:

EMD said...

You go CNN!

SteveR said...

Don't get cocky kid

Unknown said...

The cascade is in motion.

MikeR said...

While a little bit of momentum is great, it would also be good to be ahead. This is really close; I am very far from being ready to get cocky.

Carol said...

I worry RR will peak too soon. Ideally this wouldall be happening in the last week.

theribbonguy said...

Stop Prof...I just might predict a landslide if you keep sweetening my tea like this lol.

bagoh20 said...

Heartbreaking.

Wave after wave of of our best ideas are being mowed down by the invading hordes with their heartless insistence on talking substance.

war on women
evil video
47%
big bird
binders of women
Romnesia

all lying vanquished in the field

~America's Politico

Ann Althouse said...

"Stop Prof...I just might predict a landslide if you keep sweetening my tea like this lol."

I'm sure Nate Silver will have something later today to keep you grounded.

NitneLiun said...

Missouri was never a swing state. There was never a chance it would go with Obama. Only the media had it as a swing state.

Sloanasaurus said...

worry RR will peak too soon. Ideally this wouldall be happening in the last week.

Not likely. The peak is happening at just the right time. Romney is on a slow moving train of momentum that will build into victory.

It's possible that if Romney performs poorly in tonights debate, the train could be derailed.

But, Romney doesn't need to win. He just needs to show that he is competent about foreign policy. And he has already shown this time and time again.

Thus, it is likely that the momentum will keep going for Romney.

MikeR said...

"I'm sure Nate Silver will have something later today to keep you grounded."

And there you go: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/22/oct-21-uncertainty-clouds-polling-but-obama-remains-electoral-college-favorite/
Lots of good ideas in the post, by the way.

Marshal said...

The most surprising polling fact is not the states moving toward Romney, it's how resistant Ohio has been to that trend.

Geoff Matthews said...

Remember back in May when people were saying they couldn't wait to see Romney debate Obama?
This is it. The change in polls is because of the debates.

Coketown said...

I'm in Colorado and just mailed in my ballot for Romney. My sense is that people here are just really cold on Obama. The partisans aren't motivated to vote and the ideologues are voting Green. There must have been an article in some underground subversive alt-weekly telling the liberal masses to vote Green because they all seem intent on doing so. Which is fine. But enthusiasm is way down. I hope all those people of yesteryear clamoring to vote for The One take the opportunity to reflect on how fucking stupid and delusional they were in 2008. Why so frigid in Mr. Obama? How can he rekindle that fading passion? Whilst thou loins burneth once more, thither through eternity--or whilst thou merely recall sweet and fondly the ghosts of legs whose tingles are muted evermore?

Patrick said...

I'm sure the President's latest appearance on late night television will convince the voters that he's a serious candidate.

I know it's the only forum on which he can hope to look like anything other than a complete airhead, but really.

Michael K said...

This is another wave election. Clinton learned from the 1994 wave election and survived. These clowns learn nothing and forget nothing, like the Bourbons. This is McGovern's Democrat party. Notice what happened to him this weekend. Poor guy. He learned too late. His party will never learn.

Patrick said...

Hope the President keeps "winning" those debates!

Drago said...

Marshall: "The most surprising polling fact is not the states moving toward Romney, it's how resistant Ohio has been to that trend."

It's not that surprising given that obama and his campaign have been focusing on this state for electoral purposes during his entire 4 years in the presidency.

Further, the unions have really beefed up their operations there.

Bottom line: Ohio is obama's Maginot Line.

It's not really as strong for him as the public polls appear (I would love to see obama's and Romney's internal polling for Ohio!)

The media is still playing along with the obama narrative with their dem +8 and +9 polls (this weekend alone!) in a state where the 2008 turnout was dem +5.

If you actually believe obama will garner almost DOUBLE the 2008 level of enthusiasm, turnout and vote percentages with union members, women, students and independents, then you should be worried.

But if that were the case, obama would be leading by 8 to 10 points in the polls.

He isn't.

He can't get to 50%.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Not only that, in a real "tell" sort of way, many on the left (including Dan Rather!! LOL) have already begun breaking out their 2004 complaint list with the "Romney is going to steal Ohio" talking points.

Just GOTV.

By the way, if you haven't volunteered for the GOTV effort, maybe you should. It beats sitting around all day listening to exit polls on election day.

MikeR said...

Rasmussen just posted Iowa: dead even, up two points for Romney since 10/7.

PatCA said...

BTW the Druge photos today are not exactly twee juxtapositions. Drudge lays it all on the line.

Unknown said...

Looking further down the Rasmussen report on Colorado, I noticed an interesting dynamic.
1) Romney leads 51:47 among those certain to vote.
2) Among the 62% of those likely but not certain to vote who have decided who they would vote for, Romney leads 56:41
3) Among the 38% likely but not certain to vote who have not decided who they would vote for, Obama leads 54:41.

Doing the math, those likely but not certain to vote are currently supporting Ronmey 50:46 which is about the same as those who are certain to vote. 57% of Obama's supporters in this group say they may change their mind, while only 42% of Romney's supporters in this group say they may change their mind. Obama is both behind and has a higher likelihood of losing ground.

edutcher said...

And the foreign policy debate, which was gonna be Barry's strongpoint, is now a disaster.

Gotta love it!

Drago said...

It's not really as strong for him as the public polls appear (I would love to see obama's and Romney's internal polling for Ohio!)

I saw an interview with one of the Romster's field men and he was adamant that they'd take OH.

(which is the way it looks in NE OH)

PS As I said in another thread, throw in the undies and it R - 51 O - 47.

deborah said...

I'm surprised about Ohio, too, but besides Drago's good points, it's Rust Belt state. There are lots of people who don't know where the jobs will come from and take comfort in the security of Obamacare.

Ohio has opened it's third of four voter-approved casinos. Way to go, Ohio:

"By law, casinos pay a gross revenue tax of 33 percent, and that money is split between entities including counties, school districts, the four casino cities, the casino commission and programs for problem gamblers.

The Cleveland and Toledo casinos that debuted earlier this year had more than $148.7 million in revenue through August, not counting winnings paid to patrons. The revenue totals for September are expected to be released Tuesday."

http://www2.nbc4i.com
/news/2012/oct/08
/14/ohios-3rd-largest
-casino-set-open
-columbus-ar-1198405/

mccullough said...

Romney has a pretty big lead over Obama with independents in the swing states. This is good news for Romney. The Dem numbers in these states are based off the high water mark from 2008. Start dropping them by even a little and Romney wins all of them. Obama's path to victory is really narrow.

edutcher said...

Excellent point. The Cleveland Democratic City Committee can't even find 8000 people who voted Demo in '08.

phx said...

Now I'm starting to clutch my pearls.

Drago said...

Now I'm going out to buy pearls so I'll have something to clutch....

Drago said...

I've also heard something about "pearls before swine" and how it's not a good thing to do.

So naturally I'll be picking up a ham first.

dreams said...

The black community is going to vote less in this election than they did in 2008, young people are going to vote less than in 2008, the silent majority Dems (you know the ones who have been lying to the pollsters about Obama being so likeable) are going to vote less than 2008 and thanks to the secret ballot some of them will even vote for Romney.

Romney by a landslide and Nate Silver is a young naive liberal.

Lynn Meadows said...

"moved in Romney's direction"....did you really mean drifted over the River Styx toward the gates of hell?

creeley23 said...

I go with the preference cascade. It's no longer a horse race where someone leads then falls back only to regain the lead a little later.

No one is happy with Obama -- his administration has been that big a failure. The undecideds now understand that Romney isn't the extreme, heartless plutocrat as framed by the Obama campaign, so they are now free to vote for Romney.

We are in the final couple of weeks. Those few who haven't decided are making up their minds, and they will vote for Romney in increasing numbers.

Aside from the usual catastrophe disclaimers and "Don't get cocky" admonitions, I don't see any stopping this cascade. I suspect that Obama's numbers have always been weaker than the polls indicated.

Unknown said...

I think it's all over for Obama.

Unknown Jay

Paul said...

"Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week."

Ops there goes another Rubber Tree....

Nov. 2012 is almost here! Vote.

edutcher said...

For those interested, here's an NRO piece concerning why OH may be nowhere near as close as some would like us to believe.

creeley23 said...

Nate Silver is a young naive liberal.

Nate Silver will be one of the big losers in 2012.

TosaGuy said...

These numbers are not optimal for Obama.

sane_voter said...

The average for all recent Ohio polls has Romney up by 10 pts with Indies. there is no way he is up by 10 with Indies and not winning the state.

LYNNDH said...

You should see the ads that are running now here in CO. You would think that the only issue is Planned Parenthood, and the "fact" all Republicans are going to stop all birth control and shut down PP. Vicious.

K in Colorado said...

Everytime one of the Planned Parenthood ads comes on and the narrator starts with "so and so wants to shut down Planned Parenthood" my wife and I go "Yeah!!!!". Most of these ads are from Planned Parenthood, while Obama is starting to run the visionary look what I'm going to do vs. the Romney is going to defund Medicare and throw granny out the nursing home we saw last week.

ricpic said...

The most surprising polling fact is not the states moving toward Romney, it's how resistant Ohio has been to that trend.

Agreed. What's most surprising about Ohio is that it's a big coal state and you'd think that would move it decisively into the Romney column. It's ominous because, not to beat a dead horse, a Republican has never won without Ohio.

PJ said...

Nobody polls the dead, and there are a lot of them, and they all vote Democrat.

rehajm said...

OT: RCP listsed a NH poll with Obama +9. It was done by a UNH outfit led by Andrew Smith...

...which is the same Andrew Smith in charge of the famous 15 point lead poll for MA Senate candidate Martha Coakley over Scott Brown, 9 days before the special election in 2010.

Andrew Smith about the poll in 2010: "She’s simply better known and better liked than Brown..If there ever was a time for a Republican to win here, now is the time...The problem is you’ve got a special election and a relatively unknown Republican going up against a well-liked Democrat.”

rehajm said...

...conveniently, the Obama +9 poll keeps him ahead in the RCP poll average by 1 point (the other polls being R +1, O +1, Tie, R +4)

edutcher said...

ricpic said...

The most surprising polling fact is not the states moving toward Romney, it's how resistant Ohio has been to that trend.

Agreed. What's most surprising about Ohio is that it's a big coal state and you'd think that would move it decisively into the Romney column. It's ominous because, not to beat a dead horse, a Republican has never won without Ohio.


Consider this - up until the first debate, almost all the polls shilled for Barry. Then, they had to content themselves with him being ahead in the swing states.

Now they're down to the firewall. If they admit that's gone, it's over.

gmama3 said...

I'm in Colorado too, and have noticed two things.

1) The Obama cheerleaders have stopped talking

2) Recently while with a group of people I believe to be Democrats, an Obama campaign worker stopped by us to ask if we were registered. We all responded yes. When she reminded us we needed to vote, several of the Dems grumbled, "yeah not so sure about that". it was a group of 40 something college educated moms.

furious_a said...

Obama's firewall is on fire.

bagoh20 said...

The rust belt is ready to start over. Energy is gonna be the vehicle. PA and Ohio are both gonna go Romney.

Jeffrey Levin said...

You need to look at poll internals, especially D/R/I split. If you go look at Ohio for example, you would see the 2008 election with a D+7 was the best it had been for democrats. If you think that 2012 will come anywhere near that, I have a bridge to sell you. You need only to look at registrations and affiliation sampling to understand that the best case scenario, 2012 will produce a D+2 DRI split, and more than likely will produce something closer to D+0.5 to D+1. Take the ohio polls from Wapo/WSJ or CBS/Marist et al and they are all sporting D+8 to D+9 internals. Switch them over to D+2 and suddenly Romney/Ryan is blowing the doors off.

Right now I take the difference between Gallup and Rasmussen. Rasmussen is still skewing a little to 2008 affiliation in its DRI split even though its own affiliation and registration tracking samples would say otherwise, while Gallup is a little the other way.

Averaging those two shows a Romney Ryan tsunami. Those in the media will soon start changing their poling else they look like complete idiots come November 7 and you will start seeing the media engaging in its own preference cascade.

Jeffrey Levin said...

Lets do the same sort of analysis for CO.

In 2008, the DRI split was epic D with D+9. However, if you think that CO will do that again, that hardly seems possible. Look at 2004, not exactly the Republican heydey and it went R+5. If you look at Clinton's second term, it still broke R with R+2 in 1996.

Lets look at current polling. Rasmussen has R+4 and PPP has D+3. Where do you think it will land this time around? My guess would be between 2004 and 1996. Active party registation in CO has a DRI of 32/35/32 which is as I noted above between 2004 and 1996. Its a good bet that Rasmussen is close to on the mark on this one.