October 24, 2012

"Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48%."

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters, "taken the night after the final presidential debate."

30 comments:

traditionalguy said...

Happy days are here again. The Mormon Tabernacle choir fat ladies are about to sing.

Drago said...

STFU, garage explained....

campy said...

If it was O 38% to Romney's 58%, it still wouldn't be beyond the margin of fraud.

TWM said...

That is gonna leave a mark . . .

TosaGuy said...

Just think of the margin of fraud as covering the spread.

rhhardin said...

There's 2 Obama signs on my bike commute now, and 19 Romney signs.

search

NitneLiun said...

There's 2 Obama signs on my bike commute now, and 19 Romney signs.

That isn't interesting if you live in Utah. It is interesting if you live in NYC.

Bob Ellison said...

56/44 Obama/Romney on Intrade right now.

EMD said...

56/44 Obama/Romney on Intrade right now.

Wasn't Obama above 70% just a month ago?

EMD said...

Yard sign tally is 63/10 in favor of Romney right now.

I live in the Utah part of Ohio.

Bob Ellison said...

Yes, EMD, the Intrade markets for Obama and Romney have been all over the place. Not a useful predictor at all. Take a look at the chart for the Obama stock, and notice the trends in volume. Very suggestive.

Tim said...

If tied today, Romney wins Ohio.

Probably by about 2-3% points.

Romney wins Ohio, he wins the presidency.

Probably by 5-7% nationwide.

The trolls will be pissed.

AprilApple said...

Swing

Sloanasaurus said...

Many of the Ohio Polls (such as Survey USA) are still oversampling democrats. Todays Survey USA poll uses a D+9 sample.

Once these polls start using real samples (which they will to try to predict the actual result), the polls will tighten to even or show Romney ahead. Then the wheels will really come off the Obama campaign.

Jake Diamond said...

Oh noes! Another Rasmussen poll shows unusually strong support for Mittens. And when has Rasmussen ever been wrong?

Mittens wins! Mittens wins!

TWM said...

"Oh noes! Another Rasmussen poll shows unusually strong support for Mittens. And when has Rasmussen ever been wrong?

Mittens wins! Mittens wins!"

Humor, eh.

edutcher said...

Now we know why Axelrod and Plouffe were talking about winning without OH.

Where, O, where is our little pal, shilol, who said this could never happen?

Jake Diamond said...

Oh noes! Another Rasmussen poll shows unusually strong support for Mittens. And when has Rasmussen ever been wrong?

Not often.

And Ras was the one last night saying the Romster was still in a fight.

Looks like that's evening out.

trumpetdaddy said...

When Romney wins Ohio and he will by at least 3.5%, probably closer to 5%, he won't have won it on election day, 2012.

He won it on election day, 2010. The elections of Rob Portman and Jon Husted were the key elections.

Portman was the trial run of an effective establishment Republican machine being deployed in Ohio again after the debacle of Bob Taft's governorship.

Portman's ass-whipping of Lee Fisher showed how to do it properly and his machine got Mitt across the finish line in the primary against Santorum this past spring.

Secondly, Husted's election as Secretary of State chased out a Soros drone and enabled the cleanup of hundreds of thousands of "voters" in NE Ohio, primarily. Husted actually enforced the laws on voter registration and eligibility and as a consequence the "margin of fraud" in Cuyahoga County, especially, has been almost eliminated.

The media pollsters have been trying to keep Obama afloat in Ohio for weeks now because once that lib psychological barrier of losing such a key, bellwether state is breached, the rest of the borderline dominoes will fall. Which will cost not only Obama any chance of avoiding a landslide, but also doom down-ticket Dems.

Sloanasaurus said...

The media pollsters have been trying to keep Obama afloat in Ohio for weeks now because once that lib psychological barrier of losing such a key,

This is accurate. However, at some point, the media pollsters will have to start taking normal polls otherwise their predictions will be too far off from the actual results, and they will look bad. Thus, look for these polls to start swinging Romney in the next week.

gerry said...

This is accurate. However, at some point, the media pollsters will have to start taking normal polls otherwise their predictions will be too far off from the actual results, and they will look bad.

You are correct. And it's because the pollsters need to be able to charge big bucks in the future, so they have to be more honest.

Astro said...

To paraphrase Nancy Pelosi, they'll say something like: Obama had to lose so we could see what a great president he was.

trumpetdaddy said...

I would also say that the defeat of Rep. Jean Schmidt in CD2 in this spring's Republican primary to Brad Wenstrup was also a positive for Romney, and Josh Mandel.

Mean Jean was a ticket-drag in a CD that represents a key part of the SW Ohio Republican machine. It's Portman's old district. To counter NE Ohio, R turnout must be overwhelming in all CDs in SW Ohio.

With Wenstrup on the R line for Congress in stead of Schmidt, the Rs get back to winning this CD by 65-70% margins again and eliminate (to the extent possible) inclinations on the part of R voters to ticket-split or stay home.

Now, the R Congressional candidates are rock-solid in SW Ohio and the "team" has a unified front with no drags.

It's a minor thing but every little bit helps and nobody could have guessed that Obama would so totally flame out back in the spring when the R machine was quietly pushing Schmidt out the door.

Drago said...

trumpet: "The media pollsters have been trying to keep Obama afloat in Ohio for weeks now because once that lib psychological barrier of losing such a key, bellwether state is breached, the rest of the borderline dominoes will fall. Which will cost not only Obama any chance of avoiding a landslide, but also doom down-ticket Dems."

Drago said...

I meant to add that Trumpets comments were spot on.

Expect to see continuing 8-11% oversampling of dems all the way up thru the final weekend.

Ohio is the last emotional/mental "firewall" the left has remaining.

If that firewall were to disappear, the cascade away from obama would accelerate quickly.

furious_a said...

Obama's firewall is on fire!

furious_a said...

Secondly, Husted's election as Secretary of State chased out a Soros drone and enabled the cleanup of hundreds of thousands of "voters" in NE Ohio, primarily. Husted actually enforced the laws on voter registration and eligibility and as a consequence the "margin of fraud" in Cuyahoga County, especially, has been almost eliminated.

Undoing the damage of George Soros-funded Secretary of State Project.

rastajenk said...

trumpetdaddy's two posts are spot on. Especially about the worthless, space-taking Jean Schmidt.

But I still fear that it will be close enough that long lines after closing hours, provisional ballot shenanigans, and anything else in the bag of fraudulent voting will cause the results to be muddled for a while.



FreePussyPorn said...

Get your Obama t-shirts, I mean Anti-Obama t-shirts! LOL!

Change...Obama - Hundred Dollar Bills...Romney

Obama...Half Honkey, Half Donkey

Vote Romney 2012...He's White!

FreePussyPorn said...

Get your Obama t-shirts, I mean Anti-Obama t-shirts! LOL!

Change...Obama - Hundred Dollar Bills...Romney

Obama...Half Honkey, Half Donkey

Vote Romney 2012...He's White!

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