October 22, 2012

Romney takes the lead in the Politico tracking poll for the first time since last May.

With 49 to Obama's 47%, Romney has picked up 3 points since the last poll, a week ago.
Women propelled Romney’s move into first place in the poll — a majority of which was conducted before the Hofstra debate. Obama’s 11-point advantage a week ago among the crucially important group dwindled to 6 points. The Democratic incumbent still leads 51 to 45 percent with women, but Romney leads by 10 points among men.
Here's Nate Silver's analysis of the gender gap — "'Gender Gap' Near Historic Highs" — published yesterday, using, among other polls — last week's Politico numbers:
The biggest gender gap to date in the exit polls came in 2000, when Al Gore won by 11 points among women, but George W. Bush won by 9 points among men — a 20-point difference. 
Silver had this year's gender gap at 18, with Politico contributing the number 20 to his average of 9 polls. He depicts the gap with 2 Electoral College maps, "recalibrated" to add 9 points to the polls in every state first to Obama and then to Romney, which might represent a hypothetical in which only women vote and a hypothetical in which only men vote, even though Silver doesn't say that — either because it's upsetting to talk about radical disenfranchisement or because the hypothetical would change the country so radically that it would make zero sense to plug in the numbers from existing polls.

In scenario #1 Obama is more ahead than Romney is in scenario #2. Silver's prestidigitations somehow, once again, hearten the Obamaphiles in the NYT readership, but the underlying numbers have shifted. Why, after all these efforts at making women feel especially bonded to Democrats, has the greater gap developed with men going Republican? Perhaps that question contains its own answer: The blatant appeals to women don't win women so much as they lose men.

39 comments:

theribbonguy said...

If the Bamster can't pull off a TKO tonight (not likely in my opinion) he is going to make Carter look like the comeback kid.

Ya...I'm smiling.

campy said...

Meaningless. Obama's determined to have those additional 4 to 6 years he needs to remake the country. He is going to remain in office.

Matthew Sablan said...

Thing I honestly think might happen:

"We've had a lot of talk about Libya in the last two debates, so let's move on to other issues."

Quayle said...

And get ready for Obama's camp releasing an ad with video of a Mormon leader calling abortion evil.

From former U of Chicago Law professor, V&E partner, and Utah Supreme Court Justice, now member of the Quorum of the Twelve, Dallon Oaks, in a sermon on protecting children, with one line on abortion.

Here's the paragraph from which Obama's team will clip the video:

"One cause of the diminishing birthrate is the practice of abortion. Worldwide, there are estimated to be more than 40 million abortions per year. Many laws permit or even promote abortion, but to us this is a great evil. Other abuses of children that occur during pregnancy are the fetal impairments that result from the mother’s inadequate nutrition or drug use."

Here is the part of the sermon Obama's team won't show:

"Although I do not speak in terms of politics or public policy, like other Church leaders, I cannot speak for the welfare of children without implications for the choices being made by citizens, public officials, and workers in private organizations. We are all under the Savior’s command to love and care for each other and especially for the weak and defenseless."

"Children are highly vulnerable. They have little or no power to protect or provide for themselves and little influence on so much that is vital to their well-being. Children need others to speak for them, and they need decision makers who put their well-being ahead of selfish adult interests."

You heard it here first. Many signs of the ground being prepared.

Larry J said...

Interesting how the "gender gap" is always expressed from the women's point of view. Democrat candidates typically get a lower percentage of the men's vote than Republicans but that doesn't count as a gender gap.

Cedarford said...

While I think there has been some backlash to the Obamites over the top pandering - of adverising women as nothing but thinking with their twats - by women and men...Romney has to be reassuring and not come off as eager to use our military in new conflicts or start a new "cold War".

Romney has to listen to the women and moderates in his organization and not go over the top like McCain did in implying a McCain Presidency would involve many excellent new wars of Nation-Building and Adventure.

Or think nothing has happened in the 30 years since Reagan and the US must dominate every corner of the world and strive to control all events as the morally exceptional Hyperpower with unlimited money and resources.

Or imply that America exists to salute and do Israel's bidding - much as the Christian Zionists want him to.

The public wants someone that doesn't pick fights, doesn't thirst for more eternal wars - but wants the US respected and operating on a level playing field with its citizens at home and abroad safe from Muslim and other violence.

traditionalguy said...

This slick article is a summary of the NYT's "leading from behind" concept which means letting others lead us while we follow behind to where ever they want us to be executed.

That is another example that Obama is a fifth columnist murderer of his enemy which is the USA.

wyo sis said...

I always thought women were supposed to be the gender that expresses love and compassion. The Dems make them into shrill caricature of harpies. I wouldn't think that's a winning strategy, but it seems to be working.

Big Mike said...

The "gender gap" was invented in 1980 when women gave Reagan a small plurality of their votes while white males broke for him by roughly 2 or 3 to 1.

If Democrats think they can win any election by giving up the white male goyim vote by such margins then they're certifiably insane.

PETER V. BELLA said...

Doe anyone care what Politico says or does? They are the repository or unethical, inaccurate, and totally biased scribblers who cannot work anyplace else.

Bob Ellison said...

Matthew Sablan, that does seem likely. A few other ideas:

"The best foreign policy is a good domestic policy."

"The best domestic policy is a good foreign policy."

"Governor Romney is big on trade and exports. In fact, he has exported thousand of jobs overseas."

"Bob, could you repeat that?"

Matthew Sablan said...

As to Politico, I remember when they had a daily reaction question and it was really, really good. They had... what was it, Joel Kotecki in 2008 who did a daily campaign briefing that was top notch. Then, some time in 2009, the whole site just went down the crapper. I blame Ben Smith, who fled that sinking ship ASAP.

Scott M said...

As the news flash of Obama's administration in "secret" talks with Iran over it's nuclear program just hit last night, I was musing over breakfast how the Romney camp would use/not use the info. You've got to think they've got their strategy for tonight's debate hammered out and a wildcard like that might well go unspoken.

After all, if it's true, the leak was probably orchestrated by the Obama campaign, who had already engineered a ready set of replies to anything they could think of Romney saying.

Sort of using the media for a rope-a-dope.

theribbonguy said...

"Doe anyone care what Politico says or does? They are the repository or unethical, inaccurate, and totally biased scribblers who cannot work anyplace else."

All true. Which makes this poll so suh-weet! Even this pile of shills with their D plus 9 sample can't fake a lead for president Golf Pants.

I loves me some preference cascade.

Cedarford said...

One thing I would love Romney to ask is:

"Mr. President, now that you face the American people, can you explain what you met when caught off-mike with Dmnitri Medvedev, you said you had things you wanted to do with Russia that had to wait and not be discussed openly until the election was over??"

And a comeback to whatever Obama's retort is....
"And how do you feel about the relection endorsements you just got from Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez, and Raoul Castro?"

Still, Romney needs to reassure women and moderate voters that he would not work to start a new Cold war - but work overseas to help solve things. The financial crisis in Europe, working WITH Russia, China, Latin America, and other regions to create better prosperity for all, less conflict, and level playing fields in trade.

Also -

*Minus 1 vote percent if Romney exceeds mentioning Israel and "our friend Bibi" more than 5 times in the debate.
*Minus 3 vote percents if Romney leaves the impression he really wants a new major war started.
*Plus 3 vote percents if he ties his main objective in foreign policy to not bettering bloodthirsty Noble Freedom Lovers and giving them Democracy - but states that the only truly critical objective of US foreign policy is to serve the US citizens and increase their prosperity and security.

Bob Ellison said...

Romney by seven.

If I turn out to be closer than the sainted Nate Silver to the actual vote tally, will the New York Times hire me to blog?

Sloanasaurus said...

It seems like Democrats have concluded to only concentrate on woman from the neck down.

Sloanasaurus said...

Obama's electoral strategy seems like a bad one. It seems like he only cares about women who are of child bearing age.

Romney - Vote for me. I want to improve the economy grow jobs, make life better for everyone.

Obama - Don't vote for Romney, he will take away your contraception and abortion rights.

1) Why would men vote for Obama at all because of this message? Other than those who want to fornicate without consequences. This include men that may be tilting democrat

2). A good percentage of women won't buy Obama's scare tactic. Especially since it has been used over and over again in the last 10 elections. Why would women post age 50 (the ones who vote) care about Obama's message? Why would married women care about Obama's message?

Thus, it seems like Obama could lose more men than the amount of women he gains from this message.

Erika said...

Can we at least consider the possibility that the "women's issues" bullshit loses women as well? I'm not a freaking moron--I can see when I'm being pandered to--and I don't dedicate my life to having consequence-free sex while keeping an ear out for the Democratic party to cheerlead for me while doing so. Not to mention I'm constantly derided, mocked and insulted by lefties for being religious, for being traditionally married with strong gender roles, for working a low-paying part time job that allows me to dedicate most of my time to my family, and most of all for voting Republican. I am hardly alone. Why in the world would women like me, or women who are more moderate but lean my direction, feel affinity toward a party that holds up Sandra Fluke and the hags at Planned Parenthood as their standard-bearers for what a woman should be?

Erika said...

Oh, and I forgot: There used to be such a thing as pro-life Democrats, a ton of which were women; lots of Catholics. That's not allowed anymore, is it?

Bob Ellison said...

Soanasaurus said "Why would women post age 50 (the ones who vote) care about Obama's message?"

Can we stop treating women like children? Nobody does that to white men. We're supposed to be all knowledgeable about how evil we are. Are women capable of that? Shouldn't we assume they are?

If we decide to treat women like adults, could we also do that with blacks?

Jane said...

I would guesstimate, too, that 1/2 of women aren't radical abortionists: i.e. abortion up to nine months, taxpayer-funded abortion, and forcing people of conscience in business to pay for abortions.

So then you've not really endeared yourself to 75% of the electorate.

elkh1 said...

The blatant appeals to women don't win women so much as they lose men. Or

Women are not as stupid as the Democrats believe them to be.

elkh1 said...

Some commenter said somewhere:

Women's smarts vs women's parts.

edutcher said...

When you've lost Politico...

Scott M said...

As the news flash of Obama's administration in "secret" talks with Iran over it's nuclear program just hit last night

That's been shot down.

Tim said...

Fact: Obama has consistently polled below 50% for nineteen months now; no incumbent president polling below 50% has ever been reelected.

edutcher said...

It also looks like the Lefties are getting ready to throw Silver under Barry's bus.

Unknown said...

Ann, why don't you ever point out that this gender gap is an artifact of marriage? Unmarried women break Democrat, married women, Republican. And the modern world creates large numbers of unmarried people. The Democrats are the party of color and the unmarried. No surprise at this point. It's in their interest to continue destroying the family.

According to Gallup, nearly 10% of young people identify as gay or lesbian. Keep it up guys, you're doing a helluva job.

bagoh20 said...

Well there you go: women prefer to put responsibility in the hands of men like Al Gore (and his chakra), while men choose someone like George Bush. Look at how those two men conduct themselves, and you will see that a majority of women are messed up and not real good judges of character. I wouldn't suggest denying them the vote, but ladies, talk to each other. Some of your gender need a lot of help, with simple, yet important things. From the millions of abortions to fiscal demise brought on by a government nanny state sensibility, some big problems are primarily driven by females' poor decision making and self control.

stan said...

Silver's goal is to keep the lefties from going into full scale panic mode. He's all the have left.

Scott M said...

That's been shot down.

Just saw that a little bit ago. Are we waiting for Gloria Allred's shoe to drop now?

edutcher said...

I think that's the one where the Mormon woman says the Romster "bullied" her about having an abortion.

PS Ras has him up 49 - 47. Throw in undecideds and it's 51 - 47.

Scott M said...

+5-7% popular
+300 electoral

creeley23 said...

Don Corleone: I spent my whole life trying not to be careless. Women and children can be careless. But not men.

-- The Godfather

Cedarford said...

Unknown -

According to Gallup, nearly 10% of young people identify as gay or lesbian. Keep it up guys, you're doing a helluva job.

Part of that is because young kids are now indoctrinated in the Glorification of All things Gay.

Then they grow up and find they just aren't at all interested in sex and relationships with the same gender. Which explains why the same Gallup organization has determined that LGBT is 3.2% of the American population.
Dumb kids grow up and realize that homos are overrepresented in the entertainment industry in the same way Jews are overrepresented in Banking, and Southern good ol' boys are overrepresented on NASCAR teams.

Unknown said...

@Cedarford,

There is something to what you say about growing up and out of fagdom and dykedom, but I think the demographer did find something real. We have created a homosexualized generation in the US. I think it will be very difficult for these kids to grow up and have mature re'ships w/persons of the opposite gender. I think they are effed for life. If the economy were stable, if the rest of society were sane, I'd call it youthful experimentation. But that's not our society. Our society is chaos. These kids are the casualties of war.

Just my $0.2.

rehajm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rehajm said...

Future Nate Silver: When you look at the polls, don't look at them directly, but stare straight into them without focusing on any particular poll, or any particular number. Maybe move your nose a little closer to the paper. That's it- keep doing it...Soon, the image should come into focus, popping out from the page...Look! A donkey!!

Erika said...

ladies, talk to each other

Trust me, Mr. Bag O', those of us who get it are trying, but it's an uphill battle. I get in Facebook discussions all the time, very gingerly though. It's an extremely delicate matter to gently present an alternative point of view to my women friends who have been stupid enough to buy into Grievance and Identity Politics (TM), because it's very hard to get around the elephant in the room, namely, that they've been stupid enough to buy into GaIP (TM).