October 22, 2012

"Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 48%, Baldwin (D) 46%."

Rasmussen, this morning. 
The latest findings mark the first time Thompson’s been in the lead in this race since mid-August just after he won a hotly contested state GOP primary.  He was consistently ahead in surveys prior to that time back to October of last year. Since August, however, Baldwin’s support has ranged from 49% to 51%, while Thompson’s has fallen in the 46% to 47% range.
An immense amount of money was dumped into attack ads against Thompson, and it seems he's finally digging out from under that. I think he assumed he could coast to victory on his old popularity and Baldwin's extreme liberalism. (She's been rated the most liberal member of the House of Representatives.) Turns out he actually needed to fight for the position. It was stupid to assume otherwise, and the Wisconsin voters who chose him in the primary (over the attractive newcomer Eric Hovde) are really the ones who made the assumption that good old Tommy would win easily. Now, we Wisconsinites are stuck with a choice between the 70-year-old former governor and the most liberal member of the House of Representatives. I'd like to say we deserve better, but we don't.

58 comments:

Mike and Sue said...

Hovde voter here, Thompson voter come November.

carrie said...

Just curious, but why do you keep calling Eric Hovde "attractive"? Are you talking about his looks or his political stances? You have used that term before, and I haven't been sure what you meant.

carrie said...

Just curious, but why do you keep calling Eric Hovde "attractive"? Are you talking about his looks or his political stances? You have used that term before, and I haven't been sure what you meant.

Curious George said...

I voted for Hovde, but it's been widely reported that Tommy's campaign was out of cash because it had to fight off Hovde strong challenge. So I think "coasting" is not at all accurate. Tommy has been campaigning hard, and is running lots of ads now. He'll be fine.

Erika said...

I enjoy the fact that you seem to always mention Eric Hovde's babe-a-licious-ness whenever he comes in up conversation. I appreciate an attractive man too and I'm glad to have company.

My heart belongs to Paul Ryan on that front, however. Oh, and, uh, my husband.

Big Mike said...

@Professor, are you suggesting that Hovde would not have been hit at least as hard with attack ads? I suspect that one reason Thompson has been able to climb out from under Baldwin's attack ads is that everybody in Wisconsin knows him. Hovde would not have had that to fall back on.

Yes, the two-party system has problems -- may we stipulate that? Trouble is, looking around the globe, it seems to work better than any of the alternatives.

Ann Althouse said...

"Just curious, but why do you keep calling Eric Hovde "attractive"? Are you talking about his looks or his political stances? You have used that term before, and I haven't been sure what you meant."

Look at the candidates. It's obvious that physical attractiveness is part of what is going on. What's the good of denying it? Look at the 2 presidential candidates. Look at the candidates Romney bested. It's so obvious that people are voting in part for aesthetics. We are human.

I seriously think that Tammy's advantage early on came from ordinary people reacting to photographs of the 2 candidates (including the especially ugly photos of Tommy selected for the attack ads against him).

MadisonMan said...

I'd like to say we deserve better, but we don't.

Speaking as someone who voted for neither Tommy nor Tammy in the Primaries, I'll say Yes. We Do.

At least a vote for Tommy will just be a vote for 6 years of Craptastic "leadership", vs. Tammy's 6 years and maybe more of Craptastic "leadership".

Ann Althouse said...

"@Professor, are you suggesting that Hovde would not have been hit at least as hard with attack ads? I suspect that one reason Thompson has been able to climb out from under Baldwin's attack ads is that everybody in Wisconsin knows him."

Of course, Hovde would have been attacked, and he didn't have a record of fighting off attacks. How would he have done? We don't know. But he would have known he had to fight from day 1, and his supporters would have been fighting for him. The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me.

I attended the Tea Party rally here in Madison in 2010 when Tommy announced that he would not challenge Russ Feingold. Tommy said he was too old and we needed to move on to the next generation of leaders. Feingold fought to stay in the Senate and newcomer Ron Johnson -- an untested candidate -- beat him.

Then, 2 years later, Tommy was not too old, because there was no incumbent who had to be fought. He steps up and volunteers, at the age of 70, this man who 2 years earlier had declined to fight because he was too old.

Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got.

Patrick said...

If nothing else, Hovde would have had the money (his own) to spend rebutting the attacks, and making his own. If Thompson wins, it will be because voters chose him by habit. Not a good way to choose candidates, although in this case it works.

Sorun said...

At least with Thompson we should get a shot at someone else in six years.

Baldwin would stay there forever. Washington state keeps reelecting that airhead Patty Murray, so that's probably what could be expected here.

Roger J. said...

Madison Man--sad but true--our political system for the most parts presents us with nothing but bad choices (although I think we have a clear choice in the presidential race) In Wisconsin's case it look like craptasit as far as the eye can see.

Curious George said...

Ann Althouse said...

Of course, Hovde would have been attacked, and he didn't have a record of fighting off attacks. How would he have done? We don't know. But he would have known he had to fight from day 1, and his supporters would have been fighting for him. The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me.

I attended the Tea Party rally here in Madison in 2010 when Tommy announced that he would not challenge Russ Feingold. Tommy said he was too old and we needed to move on to the next generation of leaders. Feingold fought to stay in the Senate and newcomer Ron Johnson -- an untested candidate -- beat him.

Then, 2 years later, Tommy was not too old, because there was no incumbent who had to be fought. He steps up and volunteers, at the age of 70, this man who 2 years earlier had declined to fight because he was too old.

Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got."

Again you make this assertion of "complacency"...other than your words do you have anything to back it up?

Issob Morocco said...

Compared to Illinois I would say you are better off.

Ray LaHood, Denny Hastert, Barack Obama, Blagovich, George Ryan......

Issob Morocco said...

Compared to Illinois I would say you are better off.

Ray LaHood, Denny Hastert, Barack Obama, Blagovich, George Ryan......

Curious George said...

"MadisonMan said...
Speaking as someone who voted for neither Tommy nor Tammy in the Primaries, I'll say Yes. We Do."

Tammy was unopposed. I guess you could have voted for her but a she was the candidate regardless.

So that leaves the GOP...who did you vote for?

trumpetdaddy said...

Why should AA feel "shortchanged" by the choices in the general election for Senator in WI?

Her guy didn't win the primary. Obviously, if he had been the right candidate for a majority of WI Republicans, he would have won. There has been no allegation that Thompson stole the nomination, has there?

No, he won. Hovde can try again in a later election. Maybe he'll do better then.

Until that hypothetical future Hovde election, your choices are Baldwin or Thompson. Or leaving that line blank.

Bitching that your choices have been "shortchanged" when your guy lost fair and square is lame.

garage mahal said...

Thompson, like Romney, is sprinting to the middle to try to get votes. Thompson basically disavowed the Paul Ryan budget plan.

Yep, hard conservatism is real popular.

Michael Haz said...

Garage,

Thompson will win by 2 points. Conservatism is popular, in case you've been asleep.

garage mahal said...

The first rule of conservatism is don't speak candidly about conservatism. When you votes anyhow.

garage mahal said...

@Haz
In case you missed it, Thompson threw Paul Ryan under da bus. I think it doesn't bother conservatives when Thompson and Romney do it because they know they're just lying about it.

If conservatism was that popular they would be trying to expand the voter rolls instead of trying to suppress votes.

Honestly, putting up billboards to scare people from voting is just fucking pathetic.

Leland said...

I'd like to say we deserve better

No problem! Just vote him in November and then have a recall in May. Year round elections, hurray! I love this democracy!

carrie said...

Ann, thanks for the clarification.

edutcher said...

Looks like WI will be slipping into the red.

Electorally speaking.

Nathan Alexander said...

garage mahal,
Have you been studied by a scientist?

I mean, think of the breakthroughs of understanding how the mind works that could happen when they figure out how you manage to function while seeing everything in such garish cartoon distortions!

Remember how you said you couldn't imagine even Republicans voting for Thompson after the debate?

I do.

Yet here we are: Thompson leading in a traditionally liberal state.

traditionalguy said...

Is it too late to get an absentee ballot sent in from Georgia? Or is illegal voter suppression still too strong?

EMD said...

Garage ruined his avatar.

SteveR said...

Nathan, garage, when he's not outright fact impaired, is in denial. And he actually thinks he's clever with his "gotcha" comments. He really wants to fancy himself as a populist, everyman democrat.

Calypso Facto said...

A "Voter Fraud is a Crime" public service billboard = "scaring people from voting" in garage's world.

Do "Drunk Driving is a Crime" billboards scare people from driving while sober?

garage mahal said...

A "Voter Fraud is a Crime" public service billboard = "scaring people from voting" in garage's world.

And in your world too. You just won't admit it.

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Honestly, putting up billboards to scare people from voting is just fucking pathetic."

By this do you mean that the billboards will have no effect? Because I agree. We need tougher voting laws.

roesch/voltaire said...

Based on looks the prim school teacher will win over the bloated old toad Thompson has become.

garage mahal said...

The anonymous donor of the billboards was so proud of work that they would rather have them taken down than reveal themselves as the donor.

Sorun said...

Illegal immigrants are people too.

Petunia said...

No, garage, the anonymous billboard funder and his family were justifiably nervous about what the tolerant, compassionate liberals would do to their family if their identity was revealed.

Clear Channel bullied them into having the billboards removed by telling them their family's name would be revealed if they left them up.

Clear Channel caved to pressure from idiots who equate voter ID with voter suppression, and who are too stupid to understand what "illegal" means.

garage mahal said...

I just seen an "alert" from the MacIver Institute that there are long lines in Milwaukee to vote early.

ALERT!

Drago said...

From their comments it is clear that garage and r/v are simply beginning their "lashing out wildly" periods a little early prior to Thompsons inevitable easy win over Baldwin.

I say, if it makes r/v and garage feel better, let them have their time in the sandbox without comment.

Drago said...

garage: "I just seen an "alert" from the MacIver Institute that there are long lines in Milwaukee to vote early."

Can we expect another "ALERT" soon indicating that Thompson will be indicted shortly?

Drago said...

Perhaps the Milwaukee residents are voting early because they are afraid their toilets will be overflowing on election day.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/michelle-vote-early-because-your-toilet-may-be-overflowing-election-day

Curious George said...

"roesch/voltaire said...
Based on looks the prim school teacher will win over the bloated old toad Thompson has become."

Bladwin was never a teacher, but she would be a gym teacher no doubt.

viator said...

Hey, I'm seventy. That's enough septuagenarianphobia.

viator said...

Hey, I'm seventy. That's enough septuagenarianphobia.

Calypso Facto said...

Last week, Clear Channel defended the politics-free, public service announcement billboard:

"This is a free speech issue since the ads are factual and are not attack ads – attack an individual or group."
Jim Cullinan
Clear Channel VP, Corp Communications


Once again, we get to see Democrats in all their anti-First Amendment glory, bullying businesses and individuals that attempt to help prevent crime.

furious_a said...

I think he assumed he could coast to victory on his old popularity and Baldwin's extreme liberalism...Turns out he actually needed to fight for the position.

See "Thornburgh v. Wofford, 1991" for a strikingly similar matchup where the Dems prevailed.

garage mahal said...

Jim Cullinan, vice president of corporate communications for Clear Channel Outdoor, said in a statement: "We reviewed the situation, and in light of the fact that these billboards violate our policy of not accepting anonymous political ads, we asked the client how they would prefer to work with us to bring the boards into conformance with our policy.
"The client thought the best solution was to take the boards down, so we are in the process of removing them."

Calypso Facto said...

Here was Cullinan's take on that from last week, garage: "The advertiser put into their contract to remain anonymous. It is our policy to require any advertiser - including political advertisers -- to have a disclaimer which identifies themselves on the creative. This was not done on this ad which was a mistake, but we can't change the contract now and the ads will remain up.

So again, Clear Channel was bullied, probably by the FCC which controls its licencing, to remove the factual signs. You must be proud to support such anti-free speech government intervention in support of criminal activity?

Chuck66 said...

AA....totally agree with you. It is unfortunate that this is our choice. As much as I personally like Tommy, he looks old and tired. Its interesting that Baldwin doesn't look like a left wing Madison militant lesbian. I think that has helped her gain support with people who don't much about her voting record.

And Tommy doesn't look like Paul Ryan or Scott Walker.

Mary said...

" I'd like to say we deserve better, but we don't. "

Speak for yourself, Ms. Madison.
The rest of Wisconsin likes where we're sitting; Hovde who?

Remember: you don't represent this state. You represent ... Michigan, if indeed you represent. Your fairweather fan hunny is a Hoosier.

Please stop your Hovde whining and thinking you speak for Wisconsin because you are a professor with a laptop... Thank you. (and get back to your State work already.)

Mary said...

"As much as I personally like Tommy, he looks old and tired."

Who cares about looks? The old dog knows some tricks, and will be effective in representing Wisconsin in Washington.

Hovde would be learning where to eat out, who is who, and generally learning to tie his shoes in that town. Tommy is in the know. Hth.

Signed,
the rest of the state.

Mary said...

Now Madison-folk:
Don't be a pussy and vote for the pussy just because Tom has some wrinkles and you think the pussy is more pretty.

Please. (I can just see it now: "If we can't have Eric, we're crossing party lines." Bigger than Wisconsin even, think about your country and find someplace else to meet your "pretty people" needs?? Thanks very much.)

Mary said...

I think Glenn should link to this one, no?

Mary said...

"Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got. "


Baby it's over. Votes are in. You lost. Stop whining over what might have been. You'll get to vote another day.

Next time,
you "supporters" can campaign better in the PRIMaRIES, fighting from day one to get your message across. Suck up your loss, and work harder next time?

Shortchanged, my golden ass.

Mary said...

"The Tommy thing was about complacency and belief in coasting. That really annoys me.
...
Eric Hovde presented himself in the Ron Johnson mold, and I think he should have been the candidate. I feel shortchanged by the choice we got.

Again you make this assertion of "complacency"...other than your words do you have anything to back it up?"



Shhhh... she's on a role.
Soon enough, she'll figure out what she wanted *whiiiine* doesn't matter much. She got outvoted, plain and simple.

To ann, a man like Tommy is physically a coot. So she's for the prettier young guy. Like Obama over McCain.

Smart enough not to beg Tommy to woo her vote though, if ann starts threatening to "show us" by tossing her ballot to the prettier pussy.

Mary said...

"Tammy was unopposed. I guess you could have voted for her but a she was the candidate regardless.

So that leaves the GOP...who did you vote for?"

Let's see... ann was for hovde, and Madman is incapable of independent thinking. One guess who he voted for...

Two votes for pussy in the general is my guess, once ann gives him the official word...

Mary said...

Btw, if Tommy Thompson is coasting, what do you call a blogging law professor nearing retirement??



Skidding?
Skipping?
Gliding downstream?

Tommy Thompson is entitled to ... coast, if that's what you want to call it. Experience pays in the real world.

Course some are operating by Ivory Tower rules. Fwiw.

Mary said...

"Look at the candidates. It's obvious that physical attractiveness is part of what is going on. What's the good of denying it? Look at the 2 presidential candidates. Look at the candidates Romney bested. It's so obvious that people are voting in part for aesthetics. We are human."


Oh dear god are you shallow.
So you vote emotionally, and on attractiveness...

Repeat after me:
I speak for myself. I speak for myself. I speak for myself.

When you try to drag women, Wisconsinites, lawyers into your "we", shout it out loud: "I speak for myself."

Too much time in the classroom: you think your opinions matter most. Think Pacific Northwest. Yes you can. Make that move. (and take Hoosier hubby with ya?)

purplepenquin said...

She's been rated the most liberal member of the House of Representatives.

Interesting tidbit. You'd think that Tommy would have mentioned that by now....either in a commercial or during a debate.


heh

Jeffrey Levin said...

This is where O is really hurting the Dems. He has hoovered all of the contributions in the past quarter and has not shared with the DNC. The DNC had only $4.6 mm cash on hand with $5.5 mm in payables to vendors at the end of last month.

Contrast that with the RNC which had $83 million cash on hand. Given the importance of this race, my guess is that you will see the RNC go big, where the DNC is totally handicapped.